tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-77359479348706768162024-03-24T15:03:05.834-07:00Cycles, Trends, & Vibrations: What the #!?An attempt to increase understanding of some issues we face by peering at the data.Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-20010981521878819082020-04-18T13:04:00.000-07:002020-04-18T13:04:00.385-07:00Variation in resistance to Covid-19: Why?<div style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; margin-top: 6px;">
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It is starting to appear likely that there is a significant variation in susceptibility to Covid-19, with some infected individuals essentially asymptomatic, and with children, apparently, relatively unaffected by life-threatening infections.</div>
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This variation points to the importance of further investigation of mechanisms that might be involved in resistance and how these may vary from one person to another. It is virtually certain that there are other aspects of a body’s ability to fend off infection besides the ability to quickly produce antibodies. Could the environment on bodily surfaces where virus particles first land be important?</div>
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Several well publicized reports have indicated that virus survival on different types of surfaces varies significantly. For example, Covid-19 is reported to survive intact much longer on plastic surfaces than it does on copper surfaces. Could bodily surfaces vary in ways that also inhibit or enhance viral survival and penetration?</div>
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One readily measured aspect of body fluids and associated surfaces that is known to be associated with certain disease conditions is pH. Might pH and/or alkalinity of saliva, mucous, and related surfaces of the upper respiratory tract be involved in resistance to viral infection?</div>
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The infectiousness of another coronavirus, MHV-A59, has been found to be extremely sensitive to pH; at 37 degrees C that virus was stable at pH 6.0 with a half-life of 24 hours but it was rapidly and irreversibly inactivated by brief treatment at pH 8.0 (Sturman, Ricard & Holmes, 1990). Another study (Heleinius, 2013) found that for most viruses, a drop in pH serves as a trigger for host penetration, and infection of at least one virus (SFV) was prevented by weak bases such as ammonium chloride and chloroquine; this prevention involved inhibition of virus entry.</div>
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The pH of various tissues and bodily secretions appears to vary considerably not only within one’s body but from one person to another. For example, pH of saliva is reported to vary from 6.2 to 7.6, with adults tending to have more acidic saliva than children (Frothingham, 2018). The pH of nasal mucus is approximately 5.5 to 6.5 and increases in rhinitis to 7.2 to 8.3 (England, et al. 1999). Is an increase in nasal mucus pH in people suffering from rhinitis the result of disruption by the ailment’s causal agent such as pollen or a virus, or a deliberate change by the body in an effort to deactivate that causal agent?</div>
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As data on Covid-19 disease accumulates, it could be important to correlate physiological measurements with infection severity. The pH and alkalinity of key bodily surfaces and media should be relatively easy to measure and may be subject to modification. Might variations in these parameters play a role in resistance to Covid-19? It should not be difficult to gather data that would shed light on this question.</div>
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<b>References</b></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; margin-top: 6px;">
England, R.J., J.J Homer, L.C. Knight, and S.R. Ell, 1999, Nasal pH measurement: a reliable and repeatable parameter, Clin. Otolaryngol Allied Sci. 24, 67-8</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; margin-top: 6px;">
Frothingham, Scott, 2018, What is the pH of saliva? Healthline, <a data-ft="{"tn":"-U"}" data-lynx-mode="asynclazy" href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.healthline.com%2Fhealth%2Fph-of-saliva%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR37z8TEbQ7rYceyH-rcL8jZ1nAXuy2IeGKYrWArymyBBVQiX-FnQplqkaU&h=AT1jITGQ9l1py1hzHfBKVEVXUM5XZOYlHa4Xjpt-k2YDT4uqhFsOu2AP4kUBxpNymhROtTx7CFi__wBlgKzJ15o1hEUXhXM7UT93mAjcHittw9PK3ej_4Sh6_PIeweTK1M0AN6zQiZr6S58utWth7vEqlomU" original_target="https://www.healthline.com/health/ph-of-saliva?fbclid=iwar37z8tebq7ryceyh-rcl8jz1naxuy2iegkyrwarymybbvqix-fnqplqkau" rel="noopener nofollow" style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" waprocessedanchor="true">https://www.healthline.com/health/ph-of-saliva</a> accessed 4-15-20.</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; margin-top: 6px;">
Helenius, Ari, 2013, Virus entry: What has pH got to do with it? Nature Cell Biology 15, 125.</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-top: 6px;">
Sturman, L.S., C.S. Ricard, and K.V. Holmes, 1990, Conformational change of the coronavirus peplomer glycoprotein at pH 8.0 and 37 degrees C correlates with virus aggregations and virus-induced cell fusion, J. Virol. 64, 3042-50.</div>
Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-50078704922190036312017-10-17T12:30:00.001-07:002017-10-17T12:30:31.271-07:00The Hope of Trees, continued: Hazelnuts and Permaculture
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcj7tvoyhbn_6hj3x8CT5_Et478C2rBq7N7OmxvHbnmw0_7lgkguRbYe5cGI8IiWQE-VtI-qQ-AgqPV1dwnclGKXV40PwHSUZNTH0XMZrPvMQQOaskfxH6jlacvhAtw9dC1F91l9C310s/s1600/planting+crew+10-12-17.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1196" data-original-width="1600" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcj7tvoyhbn_6hj3x8CT5_Et478C2rBq7N7OmxvHbnmw0_7lgkguRbYe5cGI8IiWQE-VtI-qQ-AgqPV1dwnclGKXV40PwHSUZNTH0XMZrPvMQQOaskfxH6jlacvhAtw9dC1F91l9C310s/s400/planting+crew+10-12-17.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The other day some students at The College of New
Jersey where I teach chemistry part time helped me plant a little grove of hazelnut
trees.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Here we are after having finished
the job.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>We did this to help advance the
idea of permaculture; specifically in the form of some 15 hazelnut trees
specially developed to thrive in Eastern U.S. and donated to us by Rutgers
University.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
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<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Why permaculture?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">There is little that is truly natural about modern
agriculture.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Most crop systems involve
mechanically tearing open the soil, planting crops that are not usually native
to a region, and caring for, harvesting, and processing these crops with methods
that are typically energy- and water-intensive and sometimes chemical-intensive.
<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Modern industrialized agriculture is
hugely productive of food and fiber, but when poorly managed, it can do major
harm to soils, remove wetlands and forests, cause grasslands to become deserts,
deplete groundwater, reduce biodiversity, and pollute air, water, and
land.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Efforts to make agriculture more
sustainable include organic and related farming systems and the growing
permaculture movement. </span></div>
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<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Permaculture is a system of agricultural design that
is based on plants and growing patterns that are similar to those of natural ecosystems
in a given region.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>An important feature
of natural ecosystems is their relative permanence. Unlike typical agricultural
systems based on annual crops such as grains, beans, and vegetables, and
livestock fed by these annual crops, natural ecosystems do not need human
attention and input.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Permaculture attempts
to mimic natural systems while at the same time producing crops valuable to
humanity.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Permaculture crops are
typically long-lived or even perennial.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Such
crops can include perennial grains, such as those under development at the Land
Institute in Salina, Kansas: </span><a href="https://landinstitute.org/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">https://landinstitute.org/</span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Other relatively perennial food crops are
trees that bear fruits and nuts.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A
promising nut crop for the Eastern U.S. is the hazelnut.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Hazelnuts
can produce more protein and more vegetable oil per acre than corn or soybeans.
Once established, hazelnuts can thrive for years with little need for
pesticides and other inputs. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>There is a
strong demand for hazelnuts by consumers, including large food processors; they
could prove to be a high value crop.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
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<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Most hazelnuts available today are grown in Europe,
and are varieties of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Corylus avellana</i>.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Unfortunately, when these varieties are planted
in the Eastern U.S. they typically succumb to eastern filbert blight, an
endemic fungus disease to which the native North American hazelnut, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Corylus americana</i>, is resistant.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Although the native hazelnut readily grows in
this region, the nuts it produces are small, difficult to shell, and have
little flavor.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The trees in this
planting have been bred to resist filbert blight and grow vigorously in this
region and to also produce large and tasty nuts that should be highly
marketable.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>They have been chosen from disease-resistant
stock selected from thousands of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Corylus
avellana</i> trees and grafted onto hardy rootstocks under the direction of Dr.
Thomas Molnar, of Rutgers University’s Department of Plant Biology and
Pathology.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>More on the Rutgers program
is available at </span><a href="http://agproducts.rutgers.edu/hazelnuts/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">http://agproducts.rutgers.edu/hazelnuts/</span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">
</span></div>
<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike>Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-4994519400933131342017-04-11T18:34:00.002-07:002019-03-05T08:33:01.300-08:00Global warming, renewable energy, and next-generation nuclear power<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Introduction</span></b><br />
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<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Within the last decade, it has become obvious that
global warming is taking place at least as quickly as predictions.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>There is evidence that some aspects of the
warming such as melting of polar ice are accelerating.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[1]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Also within the past decade, technological
advances have made it possible to extract oil and natural gas from
fossil-fuel-bearing source rock, opening up vast new reserves.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Burning all the fossil fuels now known to
exist could raise the earth’s temperature by 10 to 15 degrees F by 2100.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref2" style="mso-endnote-id: edn2;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[2]</span></span></span></span></span></a> </span></div>
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<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Clearly, to avert the worst of global warming,
fossil fuel combustion must be curtailed.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>One way this could happen is if renewable sources, especially wind and solar
power, became economically and otherwise attractive enough to supplant fossil
fuel combustion.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>To be effective in
forestalling the worst impacts of climate change, however, this transition
would have to happen extensively, and soon.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>As generally accepted and agreed to in the recent Paris meetings, global
CO<sub>2 </sub>emissions from fossil fuel combustion will have to be cut by 80%
by 2050 to prevent dangerous climate change. </span></div>
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<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">There’s no question that the power of the sun is
virtually limitless compared to conceivable human needs, and the potential of
wind, while not infinite, is huge.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Several studies have made a strong case that it is technically possible
that the world’s energy demand could be met with renewables by 2050.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref3" style="mso-endnote-id: edn3;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[3]</span></span></span></span></span></a><sup>,<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref4" style="mso-endnote-id: edn4;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[4]</span></span></span></span></span></a>,<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref5" style="mso-endnote-id: edn5;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[5]</span></span></span></span></span></a></sup></span><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">,</span></sup><a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref6" style="mso-endnote-id: edn6;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[6]</span></span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
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<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">But these studies don’t specifically address
whether, given the various institutional, sociological, political, and economic
barriers to converting the world’s power system to solar and wind, widespread and
rapid conversion is anything more than a pipedream.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The studies don’t get into the details of how
to make this transition happen; essentially saying merely that it depends on
economic and political factors. Needed are studies that use electricity
production data to get a sense of whether renewables’ growth trajectory is at
all likely to lead to 100% renewable power within the foreseeable future.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Failing to focus on the difficulties facing
major penetration of renewables as evinced by their actual growth trend could
be dangerous if it leads to a false sense of security and a discounting of the
need to 1) improve renewable power sources and encourage other low-carbon
energy sources and 2) discourage the combustion of fossil fuels, such as with a
broad society-wide price on carbon dioxide emissions. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Clearly there are other approaches for predicting the
growth of energy technology, e.g. models that take into account regional
electricity demand, investment and operating costs, capacity factors, production
limitations, fuel prices, sun and wind resource bases, and varying policy
instruments including carbon prices.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But
it is not obvious that any of these model-based approaches are so reliable that
simpler approaches based on production data should be ignored. In the years to
come, the trajectory of renewables’ growth will become more apparent. The problem
is that there is little time left to phase out fossil fuels and so avoid the
worst effects of climate change.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If the
global community trusts that solar and wind will grow rapidly enough to
essentially displace fossil fuels while waiting until there is a more robust
data set to definitively determine whether or not this is so, enough time could
elapse that, should the growth of solar and wind prove to be insufficient, it
could be impossible to develop enough low-carbon energy in time to meet the Paris
agreement and thus prevent potentially catastrophic climate change.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">In this paper, use of economic models is avoided;
instead growth trends based on electricity production data from solar and wind
power at the global level are examined. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It is found that, contrary to some
perceptions, their growth rate appears to be declining.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>This apparent decline lends credence to the
idea that these technologies need further improvement, and that other
low-carbon technologies, especially next-generation nuclear, must be given
serious consideration. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The reasons why next-generation nuclear is promising
are also presented below, combined with a brief description of the various new
approaches to harnessing the power of atomic fission.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The need for a fresh perspective on the
dangers of low-level radiation is also discussed. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Renewables
are not growing fast enough</span></b></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">See charts 1 and 2 below.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref7" style="mso-endnote-id: edn7;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[7]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The first chart below shows the recent growth
trend of electricity production at the global level from solar; the second
shows that of wind.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px 144px; text-indent: 0.5in;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Chart
1</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMJP7kjcnDqp5UEbva5WYaXcQmF8YpS2S61BlJiDSQ8vUgkWHHSrcVnPUMP2jINMWOgH2g5w28jvOzXkTjXNciitcu8mpCE2AvEaDsr6Y-_egTjm2ChgT2jWc2oDXLmPFJ2lTmcS4NMl4/s1600/chart+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMJP7kjcnDqp5UEbva5WYaXcQmF8YpS2S61BlJiDSQ8vUgkWHHSrcVnPUMP2jINMWOgH2g5w28jvOzXkTjXNciitcu8mpCE2AvEaDsr6Y-_egTjm2ChgT2jWc2oDXLmPFJ2lTmcS4NMl4/s400/chart+1.png" width="400" /></a></span><br />
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<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px 144px; text-indent: 0.5in;">
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Chart
2</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmIcGzd1aoP4xVONFxUem7TgXk-S37bge2adWmp6DxmHUE0THqfBhLWADw_XZ_qK_kf7T2q-iO6JaBZu1BqMT1MD0yX95SQ9y0g3ZrGiJNZusS6V67UNYM4e_EThhcu72iaKojEEJMTQk/s1600/chart+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmIcGzd1aoP4xVONFxUem7TgXk-S37bge2adWmp6DxmHUE0THqfBhLWADw_XZ_qK_kf7T2q-iO6JaBZu1BqMT1MD0yX95SQ9y0g3ZrGiJNZusS6V67UNYM4e_EThhcu72iaKojEEJMTQk/s400/chart+2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">These graphs give the impression that solar and wind
are taking off in a revolutionary manner.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Perhaps they are.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Many have
characterized these renewable energy sources’ growth within the last decade or
so as being faster than expected and as representing consistent growth of a
given percentage each year, i.e., exponential growth.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Of course, continued exponential growth<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>eventually leads to huge numbers. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">There is a precedent for exponential, revolutionary
growth.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It is computing power, digital
storage, and electronic sensors.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>This
growth has continued to follow Moore’s law, with capabilities doubling every
two years or so.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But these technologies
may differ in a fundamental way from most other technologies in that they build
on themselves, with more capacity leading to faster growth, and faster growth
leading to more capacity, and so on. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Are solar and wind growing this way?<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Although there is much uncertainty
surrounding an effort to characterize growth of nascent technologies such as
solar and wind based on only a few years’ data, a closer look at electricity
production data provides reason to suspect that growth of both solar and wind
is slowing, and that while they may have experienced a period of exponential
growth, that period may be ending or already have ended.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">From 2008 through 2011, global production of
electricity from solar power grew at an average rate of 72% per year, with a
95% confidence interval of plus or minus 22%.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref8" style="mso-endnote-id: edn8;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[8]</span></span></span></span></span></a> <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>For the period 2012 through 2015 the average growth
rate of solar was a little over half that; 42 ± 20% per year.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The average growth rates of these two periods
are significantly different, with a Mann-Whitney test showing a two-tailed P
value of 0.0159.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>According to Solar
Power Europe, an industry-funded source that is, if anything, likely to present
an optimistic picture, the global growth rate of solar from 2016 through 2020
will be even less; about 20% per year.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref9" style="mso-endnote-id: edn9;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[9]</span></span></span></span></span></a> <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The growth rate of world electricity production from
wind power has also declined significantly during the same period.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>From 2008 through 2011, the average yearly
growth was 26 ± 3.5%; from 2012 through 2015, it was 18 ± 7.5% per year.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>These averages are also significantly
different, with a two-tailed p value of 0.0203.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">A growth rate of 42% per year, or 18%, or even a
lower percentage, if maintained, would represent exponential growth, and would
eventually lead to huge numbers.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But why
anyone should interpret the growth of solar or wind power as if it were
following an exponential pattern is not clear.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Why not interpret these renewables’ growth as linear, with a more or
less constant absolute quantity of new capacity added each year, based on the
upper limits of manufacturing capacity, resources, and funds?</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Visual inspections of plots of data, while not
sufficient to demonstrate trends, can be revealing.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>For example, Chart 3 below pictures the same
data as Chart 1, but it includes a hypothetical curve which represents what
solar’s growth curve would look like had it maintained the 72% per year rate of
2008 through 2011 in subsequent years. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px 144px; text-indent: 0.5in;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Chart
3</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJPbHLKuecq433tEBOGMixMZAl53WEZSvy7ig69Ts4Qe8gL0M6HsJHMkt8AZGPBxBKj5Y5e2oerz6PBMZGIS3nUN5dNB88DKASK2OlJddW4bT4gC-_gwFUBcfHun6vYZVWDPJWLbpIFBI/s1600/chart+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJPbHLKuecq433tEBOGMixMZAl53WEZSvy7ig69Ts4Qe8gL0M6HsJHMkt8AZGPBxBKj5Y5e2oerz6PBMZGIS3nUN5dNB88DKASK2OlJddW4bT4gC-_gwFUBcfHun6vYZVWDPJWLbpIFBI/s400/chart+3.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">This chart shows that solar’s actual growth curve diverged
in 2012 from the 72%/year hypothetical curve. Further, the trend for the years 2012
through 2015 has the look of a straight line.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>A linear regression of these four data points shows that a straight line
indeed fits these data well, with a R<sup>2</sup> value of 0.9906.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The slope of this best-fitting linear
function is 50 ± 15, which suggests that solar is adding between 35 and 65 TWh
of electricity production each year. The same exercise performed with wind data
shows a similar picture; a linear regression fits the 2012 through 2015 data
with a R<sup>2</sup> value of 0.9908.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>The slope of this best-fitting linear function is 102 ± 30, which suggests
that wind is adding between 72 and 132 TWh of electricity production each
year.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span><br />
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">That the future growth trend of solar and wind is
more likely to be linear than exponential is further suggested by the data
depicted in Chart 4.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>This chart plots percent
growth in solar from 2014 to 2015, for all nations where solar production was
greater than 1 TWh in 2015, versus the percent of that nation’s electricity
provided by solar power. This pattern suggests that there is a saturation
factor operating in the case of solar.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Initially, it grows fast, but when more than 5 percent or so of a
nation’s power is provided by solar, solar’s growth slows down.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Although there is much variation, in part due
to varying subsidy regimes, a similar pattern appears to exist for solar power
in states in the U.S.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A less distinct
but not dissimilar pattern exists for wind at the global level.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px 144px; text-indent: 0.5in;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Chart
4</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqeoekUOZ3w7fbLxB7RugSL3YxaSSTyKO84fg90ed0fHHmd9ze_5RUHKQpbBiQo1YJs2CQTS9ByZoZUKfhuDSSt5YnVPxppYxzIpEf1spH1MI8xDpaupgl9A0_6TgKdPjA1H4T-8hDYBI/s1600/chart+4.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqeoekUOZ3w7fbLxB7RugSL3YxaSSTyKO84fg90ed0fHHmd9ze_5RUHKQpbBiQo1YJs2CQTS9ByZoZUKfhuDSSt5YnVPxppYxzIpEf1spH1MI8xDpaupgl9A0_6TgKdPjA1H4T-8hDYBI/s400/chart+4.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">If solar (and wind) were growing linearly, adding a
constant quantity (but not a constant percent) of production each year, one
would expect a declining rate (in percentage terms) of growth, and so countries
getting more power from renewables would show a lower percentage growth.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Such a pattern is consistent with Chart
4.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But the pattern shown is not at all
consistent with the notion that renewables are consistently growing in an exponential
manner. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span><br />
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The point here is not to claim that solar and wind
are now growing linearly, but rather to argue that they could be, and that
there is little reason to assume that they are continuing to grow
exponentially.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If this transition from
an apparently exponential pattern to an apparently linear pattern is real, it
may be that growth of both of these technologies more likely resembles a
logistic pattern.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If they should follow
such a pattern, solar and wind will be growing like most other technologies and
systems in both the man-made and natural world; most technologies and other
systems don’t grow in an exponential manner for long.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref10" style="mso-endnote-id: edn10;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[10]</span></span></span></span></span></a></span><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">,</span></span></sup><a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref11" style="mso-endnote-id: edn11;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[11]</span></span></span></span></span></span></a><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">
</span></sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Instead, growth typically follows a logistical
or “growth curve” pattern, characterized by an early exponential period that
transitions to a linear phase, adding a more-or-less constant increment each period,
eventually levelling off as constraints come into play limiting further growth.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Biological systems consistently behave this
way, and so do most technologies.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Prime examples
of such apparently logistical growth are railroads<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref12" style="mso-endnote-id: edn12;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[12]</span></span></span></span></span></a>
and automobiles.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref13" style="mso-endnote-id: edn13;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[13]</span></span></span></span></span></a>
<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>For a short period each grew
exponentially, and then settled into linear growth, and then tapered off
further.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>With both technologies, the linear phase persisted
over long periods of time; it was not noticeably affected by improvements in manufacturing
methods or innovations in the technologies themselves. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>See charts 5 and 6 below. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px 144px; text-indent: 0.5in;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Chart
5</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQlWnyfxLQxN5p5TWuCVz8QIQJNMcaDJox1P7LNpA9fuw0h-n_1eBD4wSUMtCIzv3od8viG8Vr-aJ2ZwJ6iNDtcfrk-1GUnCQERIHvRIWZu2yGh7DuPt62vQbONozBJOG4NhNGzwp-xa8/s1600/chart+5.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQlWnyfxLQxN5p5TWuCVz8QIQJNMcaDJox1P7LNpA9fuw0h-n_1eBD4wSUMtCIzv3od8viG8Vr-aJ2ZwJ6iNDtcfrk-1GUnCQERIHvRIWZu2yGh7DuPt62vQbONozBJOG4NhNGzwp-xa8/s400/chart+5.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe99r8ZCLMXBPbWomjU4CYA2v5XbJLZH6p3F-jHbiBfwb7kF9dKdKXgOXGp7Zrb_EJvLi357HsKRhIA6_IFrFMjOmhHZUvhi8qrGFEZ7geTFGEDeEJXQUtk5SLBuo6fHAJChZrlU3WNyE/s1600/chart+6.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe99r8ZCLMXBPbWomjU4CYA2v5XbJLZH6p3F-jHbiBfwb7kF9dKdKXgOXGp7Zrb_EJvLi357HsKRhIA6_IFrFMjOmhHZUvhi8qrGFEZ7geTFGEDeEJXQUtk5SLBuo6fHAJChZrlU3WNyE/s400/chart+6.png" width="400" /></a><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Chart 6</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">If solar and wind are now growing linearly, or are
in a linear phase of logistical growth that continues through 2050, how much of
the world’s energy might these sources provide by 2050?<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span><br />
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">As noted above, the upper bound of the 95%
confidence interval around the mean slope of solar’s best-fitting linear growth
function is 65 TWh/year.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The upper bound
of wind’s slope is 132 TWh/year. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Projecting these upper-bound linear functions
to 2050 suggests that solar’s contribution could grow from its 2015 global
production of approximately 250 TWh to about 2500 TWh, and wind’s production
could grow from its 2015 value of approximately 850 TWh to about 4400 TWh.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The two together would thus contribute 7000
TWh to the world’s energy consumption in 2050. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Human civilization currently uses energy at a rate
of about 18 TW.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>That number is projected
to grow to 25 TW by 2035, growing further to 30 TW by 2050.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref14" style="mso-endnote-id: edn14;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[14]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Used at a constant rate 24 hours a day, 18 TW
translates to about 158,000 TWh (about 540 quadrillion Btu) per year.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It’s possible that this projected growth in
energy use could be slowed considerably by converting most transportation to
electric, because electric motors are far more efficient than internal combustion
engines.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Also, major improvements in
energy efficiency could be made in other areas.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Even so, world energy use is likely to grow.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>However, even if energy use should hold steady
and solar and wind provide 7000 TWh of energy in 2050, they will be providing
no more than five percent of world energy by 2050.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">A similar analysis of data for only the U.S. leads
to a conclusion only moderately less gloomy; solar and wind appear to be on
track to provide less than ten percent of total U.S. energy use by 2050.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">This outlook could be overly pessimistic.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Solar and wind may actually be growing
exponentially, or they could resume such growth.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>There are many factors affecting the growth
of solar and wind.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Continued cost
declines will encourage growth, as will the development of cheaper storage
technology, which can offset the problem of intermittency (no solar power at
night, no wind power when the wind isn’t blowing).<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Cost-effective storage technology that would
work on a large scale is, according to some analysts, only a few years
away.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Should the costs of these
renewables decline to a level where they are clearly cost-competitive with even
the cheapest fossil fuel-powered sources, their growth could accelerate.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">On the other hand, the outlook may be
optimistic.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Why should a linear trend
continue for another 35 years, or more?<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It
is true that costs of both technologies have been declining; solar panels
especially are far cheaper than they once were.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>But panels are only part of the costs of solar PV.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Currently, “balance of system” (BoS) costs,
which include cabling, wiring, racking, and permitting, make up more than half
of the cost of a solar installation.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref15" style="mso-endnote-id: edn15;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[15]</span></span></span></span></span></a> There
seems little reason to expect BoS costs to decline significantly.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Both solar and wind have been, and still are,
heavily subsidized in most markets. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In
the U.S., solar installation qualifies for a 30% federal tax credit.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Many states have additional subsidies. For
example, in New Jersey, solar subsidies (net metering and solar renewable
energy credits) typically pay for over 150% of the cost of installing solar. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Even with the huge subsidies, solar’s growth rate
has slowed in that state. Pressure is mounting in some jurisdictions to lower
or entirely remove subsidies for renewables. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Removing or lowering subsidies will discourage
growth, and could prevent renewables from maintaining even steady linear
growth.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The percentage renewables
provide by 2050 could be even less because of several additional factors; a
possible saturation effect, a likely growth in overall electricity demand, and
unfavorable net energy. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<u><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Is there a solar saturation factor?</span></u></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The first factor, at least in the case of solar, is
that there may be a saturation effect in operation. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>As shown in Chart 4, above, data on
electricity production of the world’s nations suggest that when solar reaches
the point where it provides 5% of a nation’s electricity supply, its growth rate
slows significantly.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>This pattern
suggests that there may be a saturation factor operating in the case of
solar.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Initially, it grows fast, but
when more than 5 percent or so of a nation’s power is provided by solar, solar’s
growth slows down.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Although there is
much variation, in part due to varying subsidy regimes, a similar pattern appears
to exist for solar power in states in the U.S.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>A less distinct but not dissimilar pattern exists for wind at the global
level. Could there be an explanation for why the market for solar might become
saturated at a relatively low level of penetration?<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">There are some possible explanations. The
electricity supply network is comprised of a variety of power sources.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Some, the baseload plants, run nearly all the
time.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Others run intermittently; either
when they can, in the case of solar and wind, or when they are needed.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Generally the most expensive power providers
are those pressed into service only when demand spikes to extra-high
levels.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>These are the “peaking plants.” <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Peaking plants are generally relatively small
plants that are used primarily in afternoons in the summer when electricity use
peaks due to use of air conditioners.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Peaking plants are typically single-cycle natural gas-powered units,
often modified jet engines, and have the ability to come on line on short
notice.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>However they are inefficient and
expensive to run.<span style="color: #548dd4; margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span>Solar electricity, since it
typically reaches its maximum output on sunny summer afternoons, competes well
with peaking plants in this niche. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Solar is clearly now cost-competitive with most peaking
plants. Solar should be able to fill much of this niche.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But this niche is not large.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Peaking plants represent about 5 percent of
the total electricity market.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>That this
percentage is consistent with the level of penetration at which solar’s growth
appears to taper off may not be a coincidence.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Other possible explanations for this apparent
saturation effect include the likelihood that prime sites for both wind and
solar are selected first, and that subsequent siting is more problematic.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Both power sources have large
footprints.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Solar needs a sunny spot;
wind needs a windy locale. Expanding into areas otherwise suitable but not
close to concentrations of power users can necessitate construction of
transmission infrastructure, stimulating adverse NIMBY reactions.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>This has happened in many places.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref16" style="mso-endnote-id: edn16;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[16]</span></span></span></span></span></a><sup>,<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref17" style="mso-endnote-id: edn17;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[17]</span></span></span></span></span></a></sup>
<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<u><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Electricity use is likely to grow</span></u></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Another reason why renewables may provide even less
of the total energy supply is that electricity use is likely to grow. It’s true
that major strides have been made in energy efficiency, and as a result,
electricity use in the U.S. and in other industrialized nations has more or
less held steady for the last two decades or so.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But, as noted above, electricity demand at
the global level is predicted to grow. Currently, much of the world’s
population has little or no access to electricity.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>While per capita power consumption in the
U.S. is about 1400 watts per person, in China it is about 400 watts per person,
in Mexico, about 200 watts, in India 65 watts, in Nigeria, about 15 watts.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>People in the developing world clamor for
electricity and the better lifestyle it can bring.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>And they are increasingly moving to cities.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>These mega-cities will need reliable
electricity, and lots of it.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If
renewables are in fact growing linearly, what they will provide in 2050 will be
an even smaller percentage of the likely larger electricity supply that will
rise to meet the demand.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If this demand
is not met with low-carbon power, it will be met by burning coal and natural
gas. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<u><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Solar power’s net energy</span></u></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">A third factor is also not encouraging, at least for
solar.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>This is the net energy, sometimes
expressed as the energy return on investment ratio (EROI).<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It’s the ratio of the total energy provided
by a power source over its lifetime to the energy required to bring that power
source into being and to operate it for its lifetime. It has been estimated
that an EROI of 5 to 1 or greater is necessary to generate enough surplus
energy for the various energy-using ancillary functions, such as health care,
education, provision of food and shelter, etc. that are necessary to run modern
society.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref18" style="mso-endnote-id: edn18;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[18]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The EROI concept is related to economic notions
such as levelized-cost-of-energy LCOE, but due to vagaries in calculation
methods including assumptions about the time value of money and its relation to
energy costs, a viability picture based on EROI is not necessarily consistent with
one based on economics. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">A comprehensive investigation of solar electricity
generation in Spain found that its EROI, even in that sunny country, was
surprisingly low; in the range of 2.45.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref19" style="mso-endnote-id: edn19;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[19]</span></span></span></span></span></a> The
authors of that study estimated that Germany’s solar EROI was even less (between
1.6 and 2).<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A study by Ferroni and
Hopkirk found that the EROI of solar PV is, at least in some locations in
Europe, lower than 1.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref20" style="mso-endnote-id: edn20;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[20]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The researchers concluded that in regions of
moderate insolation, solar PV has an EROI of 0.82, and thus cannot be termed an
energy source but is rather a non-sustainable energy sink and will therefore
not be useful in displacing fossil fuels.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>This picture is consistent with an economic analysis of the prospects
for cost competitive solar PV power.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref21" style="mso-endnote-id: edn21;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[21]</span></span></span></span></span></a> <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The authors of that analysis, while
concluding that solar PV will likely soon be cost competitive in areas with
plenty of sunshine, stated that in regions with low insolation such as Germany,
solar PV will be at a permanent and seemingly insurmountable disadvantage. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Not surprisingly, studies reporting low EROI values
have not been received favorably by supporters of solar.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In a heated “demolition” of the Ferroni and
Hopkirk study, one analyst, using purportedly the most recent data, argued that
the EROI of solar is higher; triumphantly concluding that it is closer to 2.83
than to the value of less than 1.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref22" style="mso-endnote-id: edn22;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[22]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But 2.83 is a poor EROI; arguably too low to
sustain industrial civilization.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Another
perspective on EROI is provided by studies of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions
over the entire life of an energy source, so-called life cycle analysis
(LCA).<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>With some assumptions, a power
source’s EROI can be derived from life-cycle analyses (LCA) of carbon dioxide-equivalent
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">(</b>CO<sub>2</sub>eq) emissions associated
with a power source.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>For solar, such an
assessment takes into account the emissions from the energy used in manufacture
of solar panels, including acquisition of the necessary materials, the
manufacture of inverters and related equipment, the construction of necessary
supporting structures, and the other energy-using processes involved.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Most of the up-front energy inputs in the solar
system life cycle are fossil fuels.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A
meta-analysis of power sources found that solar electricity production, especially
PV, while far superior to fossil fuels, emits significantly more carbon over
its lifetime than hydropower, wind, or nuclear energy.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>See table 1. </span></div>
<br />
<div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">Table
1</span></div>
<br />
<div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">Life-cycle analyses of selected
electricity generation technologies, </span></b></div>
<br />
<div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">50<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup> percentile values
(g CO<sub><span style="font-size: x-small;">2</span></sub>eq/kWh); </span></b></div>
<br />
<div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">aggregated
results of literature review<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref23" style="mso-endnote-id: edn23;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[23]</span></span></span></span></span></a> </span></div>
<br />
<div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; border-image: none; border: medium; margin: 0px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: transparent; border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.9in;" valign="top" width="182"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">Solar</span></div>
</td>
<td rowspan="2" style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-image: none; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 0.95in;" valign="top" width="91"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">Hydro-power</span></div>
</td>
<td rowspan="2" style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-image: none; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 0.95in;" valign="top" width="91"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">Wind</span></div>
<div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">Energy</span></div>
</td>
<td rowspan="2" style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-image: none; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 0.95in;" valign="top" width="91"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">Nuclear</span></div>
<div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">Energy</span></div>
</td>
<td rowspan="2" style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-image: none; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 0.95in;" valign="top" width="91"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">Natural</span></div>
<div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">Gas</span></div>
</td>
<td rowspan="2" style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-image: none; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 0.95in;" valign="top" width="91"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">Coal</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-image: none; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1px 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 0.95in;" valign="top" width="91"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">PV</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1px 1px 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 0.95in;" valign="top" width="91"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">CSP</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-image: none; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1px 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 0.95in;" valign="top" width="91"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">46</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1px 1px 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 0.95in;" valign="top" width="91"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">22</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1px 1px 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 0.95in;" valign="top" width="91"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">4</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1px 1px 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 0.95in;" valign="top" width="91"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">12</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1px 1px 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 0.95in;" valign="top" width="91"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">16</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1px 1px 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 0.95in;" valign="top" width="91"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">469</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1px 1px 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 0.95in;" valign="top" width="91"><div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; margin: 0px;">1001</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div align="center" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Since renewables and nuclear do not emit carbon
dioxide during their power production, their LCAs can be used to estimate EROI
by assuming an average value for the CO<sub>2</sub>eq emissions of the fuels
used as inputs to their materials and construction.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Assuming a value of 15 GJ per ton of CO<sub>2</sub>eq
emissions (an approximate average of natural gas and diesel fuel), solar PV,
with a LCA of 46 g CO2eq emissions/kWh as per the table above, has an EROI of
5.2 to 1.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>(Wind, with a similar
calculation, has an EROI of 20:1.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Nuclear
power’s EROI is 15:1.)<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The EROI research field is still plagued by
uncertainty. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Establishing the boundaries
of EROI studies – what is to be included and what not – has not been consistently
defined.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Thus solar’s relatively poor
showing in some studies is not definitive.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Other studies have found a more favorable EROI for solar. But solar’s
low EROI number in many studies lends credence to the conviction that
renewables’ percentage contribution to the total energy supply of 2050 is likely
to be disappointing. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">New
nuclear technology has the potential to provide the low-carbon electricity that
will be needed<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></b></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Fossil fuels are formidable foes to low-carbon
energy sources because of their energy density.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>A one kilogram lump of coal, about the size of a large grapefruit,
contains in the chemical bonds that hold its atoms together about 30 megajoules
(MJ) of energy.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>This is equivalent to
the energy expended by a person doing hard physical work for about 15
hours.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Petroleum and natural gas are
even more energy-dense.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Although there
is vast energy in sunlight and wind, it is relatively diffuse.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>This is why it would take, for example, 25
square miles of solar panels or 600 of the largest available wind turbines,
with their attendant service roads, to produce the same amount of electricity
as a one thousand megawatt fossil fuel plant occupying 0.3 square miles.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">But the chemical energy holding atoms together, released,
for example, by combustion, cannot compare in magnitude with the energy holding
nuclei of atoms together that can be released by fission.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The energy contained in uranium or thorium
that could be released, for example in a breeder reactor, is about 80,000,000
MJ per kg, over two million times the energy density of coal.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Not all of the energy in coal, or in uranium
(or thorium) ore can be turned into electricity.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Nevertheless, the difference in energy
density is huge.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A two-million ton pile
of coal, requiring over 300 miles of coal trains to haul it, when its energy is
released through combustion, is equivalent in energy content to that released
via fission by one truckload of uranium ore.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref24" style="mso-endnote-id: edn24;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[24]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The tremendous energy density of the atom means that
nuclear energy, if properly harnessed, could provide all the energy
civilization would conceivably need far into the future, not only to produce
the electricity needed for a modern lifestyle for all, but energy enough to
desalinate seawater on a large scale, prevent further deforestation, end
pollution of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide, and even provide the energy to
sequester carbon dioxide and lower atmospheric concentrations to pre-industrial
levels.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<u><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Nuclear plant basics</span></u></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">There are two basic types of nuclear reactors:
thermal reactors and fast reactors.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Both
cause reactions that break apart, or “fission” atoms, releasing energy and also
releasing particles, typically neutrons, that break apart more atoms, causing a
chain reaction that releases enough energy to heat water or another fluid which
then drives turbines or similar units that convert the heat into
electricity.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Only some atoms are capable
of undergoing fission to the degree necessary to maintain a chain
reaction.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>For example uranium, which is
mostly comprised of the isotope U-238, must be “enriched” by increasing the
concentration of the U-235 isotope, which, when it fissions, produces enough
byproduct neutrons to maintain a chain reaction.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Another isotope, plutonium-239, is also
readily fissionable. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The fission reactions create various byproducts,
some of which are smaller atoms, called “fission products.” Fission products
are highly radioactive, and typically have relatively short half-lives.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Some byproducts are larger than the parent
atoms, having absorbed one or more neutrons.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>These larger atoms, called “transuranics” or “actinides,” don’t fission
well and thus can stall the chain reaction.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Many of them are also unstable, and eventually decay by releasing alpha
particle radiation. Many of the transuranics have long half-lives, extending to
thousands of years. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">A thermal reactor employs neutrons, which have been
released by the fission of certain isotopes, such as uranium-235 or uranium-233,
but it slows down the fission reactions to avoid creating too many
transuranics.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Most of today’s nuclear
plants are thermal plants that use pressurized water to slow, or “moderate” the
fission reactions.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The pressurized
water, heated by the nuclear reactions but also keeping it moderated and at the
proper temperature, is paired with a second system of water which, heated to
steam, drives the electricity-generating turbine. Some plants have no secondary
cooling loop; the primary loop both moderates the reaction and generates
steam.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>All of these generation II plants
operate well above atmospheric pressure, and they all need a constant
electricity supply to maintain the circulation of the water necessary to
moderate the reaction. While there are designs that use “heavy” water, water
that contains deuterium (hydrogen with an additional neutron) instead of normal
hydrogen, most of the world’s nuclear plants use regular, or “light” water, and
so are termed “light water reactors” (LWRs). <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">A fast reactor doesn’t moderate neutrons, but
provides different fuels that fission more readily when bombarded by fast
neutrons, i.e., neutrons that have lost little energy by collision with other
atoms.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Fast reactors can burn more of
their fuel before fission products build up to the point where the fuel needs
replenishing.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>They can also make use of
uranium that doesn’t have as high a percentage of the very fissionable U-235.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>They can also burn spent fuel waste, and
thorium. But, the higher internal energies of the reactions in a fast reactor
present materials challenges that have not been thoroughly resolved. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<u><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The current generation of nuclear power
plants</span></u></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The current generation of nuclear power plants,
so-called generation II, seems incapable of meeting the challenge presented by
vast new quantities of cheap fossil fuels.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>At least in western industrial economies, some of the current plants have
closed, primarily because they cannot produce electricity as cheaply as natural
gas plants.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Construction of related
generation III and III+ plants has been plagued by delays and cost
overruns.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">It is this high cost, and the potential for delays
and resulting cost overruns that leads some to argue that nuclear power has no
future based on cost alone.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>However, the
existing literature on construction costs of reactors is almost totally based
on data from the U.S. and France.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A
recent study that gathered data on the cost history of 349 reactors built in
seven nations including Japan, South Korea, and India found that costs have
varied significantly, and that there has been much milder cost escalation in
many countries, with even absolute cost declines in some countries and specific
areas.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref25" style="mso-endnote-id: edn25;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[25]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>New construction has become expensive in
part because, so far, there has been so much design variability and variation
in requirements imposed by different utilities that each plant built has been
different.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Generation III plants represent a significant
improvement over generation II plants, however.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>They are more efficient thermally, have some passive safety features,
and use standardized designs.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Generation
III plants are being built in Asia and in Russia.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Generation III+ plants have additional improvements.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>They are designed for a 60-year lifespan,
have stronger containment domes, and passive safety systems that can cool and
stabilize the reactor in the event of a mishap for a relatively long period of
time without human intervention and without the need for electrical power.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Primarily because of construction of these improved generation
III and III+ plants, global nuclear generating capacity increased slightly in
2016. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>China provided the largest
increase, with five new reactors contributing 9,579 megawatts to the total.
Five more reactors, one each in India, Pakistan, Russia and South Korea and
Watts Bar 2 in the United States, also came on line.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref26" style="mso-endnote-id: edn26;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[26]</span></span></span></span></span></a>
China apparently plans to build 8 more reactors using the Westinghouse AP-1000
design<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref27" style="mso-endnote-id: edn27;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[27]</span></span></span></span></span></a> and
has proposed building an additional 30.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Plants
of the AP-1000 design have standardized design and modular components and can
theoretically be built in 36 months.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A
factory to build the modules for the AP-1000 has been constructed in China, and
so it is possible that the growth rate of nuclear electricity production in
China will accelerate.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref28" style="mso-endnote-id: edn28;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[28]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The growth rate in nuclear generation in that
country was about 10% to 15% per year from 2011 through 2014, but grew by
nearly 30% between 2014 and 2015.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In 2015,
new production from nuclear in China was 38 TWh.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>This exceeded new production there from wind
(26 TWh) and solar (16 TWh) in that year.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref29" style="mso-endnote-id: edn29;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[29]</span></span></span></span></span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Further, a number of companies are working on
designs for small Gen III+ designs that are modular and small enough so that an
entire reactor could be built off-site and shipped by rail or truck and
assembled on site.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Nevertheless, most Generation III and III+ plants
are large and capital-intensive, and they all operate above atmospheric
pressure and require active cooling.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Because
they must maintain pressure and cool the reaction process with active systems
requiring electricity, in the event of a loss of pressure or a power failure these
plants require various mechanical interventions to avoid major problems.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<u><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">New designs </span></u></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">A comprehensive report by the Breakthrough
Institute, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">How to Make Nuclear Cheap</i>,<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref30" style="mso-endnote-id: edn30;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[30]</span></span></span></span></span></a>
discusses a number of new reactor designs and identifies key aspects that could
reduce costs.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">All the new designs include some or many inherent
safety features that the current generation of reactors does not.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>These include passive safety systems that
will shut down the system even in the absence of outside power.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A number of the designs operate at
atmospheric pressure, and so are not subject to potential emergencies caused by
loss of pressure.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Most include fuel
systems that are much more melt-down resistant than the current
generation.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>And, most are more efficient
thermally, which means less demand for cooling water.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Of these new designs, only two, high-temperature
gas reactors and sodium-cooled fast reactors, have been demonstrated at the
commercial scale.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>However, several of
the designs are capable of being built with off-the-shelf technology and should
not require significant materials research and development.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Many of the designs produce far less waste,
and have fuel requirements undemanding enough so that they can be considered
renewable. Some are close to commercial scale demonstration.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>With today’s computer aided design and
modeling capabilities, it could take a relatively small push to bring some of
these designs to the point where they would win the economic battle with
natural gas and coal.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The Breakthrough Institute’s report concludes that
it is not advisable at this point to lock in any one of the various new
designs, but rather to push for 1) expanded investment in innovation, 2)
innovation across advanced designs (to share benefits among related
technologies), and 3) to reform the licensing process.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Below is a brief description of some of the most
promising designs, including a summary of their advantages and a brief
discussion of issues still to be resolved. These descriptions are primarily
based on interpretations of information contained in the Breakthrough Institute
report referenced above and Robert Hargraves’ book, Thorium: Energy Cheaper
than Coal.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref31" style="mso-endnote-id: edn31;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[31]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Salt-cooled thermal reactors</span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Salt-cooled thermal reactors use slow (i.e.,
moderated) neutrons and a liquefied salt for the primary and/or secondary
coolant.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Some use a molten fluoride salt
coolant and a solid fuel; in other designs the fuel is also in liquid form,
either dissolved in the salt coolant or adjacent to it. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Pebble-bed
advanced high-temperature reactor:</span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">One salt cooled thermal design, the pebble-bed
advanced high-temperature reactor (PB-AHTR), uses fuel “pebbles” about the size
of billiard balls.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Each pebble contains
thousands of sand-sized particles of uranium fuel. These particles, called
TRISO particles, are coated with three barrier layers to contain the
radioactive materials. The pebbles are packed closely together and cooled by
molten salt which then flows to a secondary loop to produce electricity. Over
time, the pebbles move slowly upwards in their housing, and are examined by robotic
machinery that determines their remaining fissile fuel content.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Spent pebbles are set aside and replaced by
fresh pebbles. The spent pebbles are strong and hard, suitable for disposal. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Because of the high heat capacity of the molten
salt, the PB-AHTR is compact, and it operates at temperatures high enough so
that, unlike today’s Gen II and III reactors, it can power off-the-shelf high-efficiency
Brayton cycle power conversion systems similar to those used in modern
combined-cycle gas turbines. Also, the TRISO fuel form is well-understood and
has already been used in other types of reactors.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Because the fission byproducts are contained
in the TRISO particles, they don’t get into the molten salt and so cannot
interact with and corrode or weaken the unit’s vessels, piping, and pumps.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Unlike Gen II and III and III+ reactors, the PB-AHTR
operates at atmospheric pressure and utilizes fuel and coolant that are not
prone to runaway heating or meltdown.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It
could readily be constructed in a fully modular fashion, and it is largely
based on components and materials that have already been used successfully at
the commercial scale. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Some remaining challenges for the PB-AHTR are that the
TRISO particles must be produced with extreme uniformity.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>This has been achieved, but scaling up such
production to the commercial scale could present difficulties. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Also, while the liquid coolant is thermally
efficient and it can’t melt because it is already liquid, it can solidify if
the reactor has to shut down.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Solidification of the salt would seal in radioactive materials and
contain leaks, but it would damage equipment, presenting an economic risk.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Denatured
molten salt reactor </span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Another salt cooled thermal design, the denatured
molten salt reactor (DMSR) contains fissile uranium and thorium dissolved in a
molten fluoride salt.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The uranium is
“low enriched uranium” (LEU).<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>LEU <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>is “denatured” in that its fissile component,
U-235, is diluted with at least 80% U-238, which makes it unsuitable for
weapons. The radioactivity of U-235 starts the fission process going, and some
of the neutrons released by this fission are absorbed by the thorium, which
then decays to form U-233, which is also fissile and then participates in the
chain reaction. The entire process takes place within the liquid salt.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Some of the fission products can be removed
from the liquid medium by physical processes, and the remaining products become
fluorides that remain dissolved in the molten salt for the estimated 30-year
lifetime of the fuel and salt charge.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>At
this point the salt can be reprocessed chemically, extracting the uranium for
re-use.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Left behind in the salt will be
dissolved fission products and transuranics such as plutonium. Alternatively,
the salt can be sequestered as waste.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Then the DMSR can be recharged with new salt solution, thorium, and LEU
and run for another 30-year cycle.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">There appear to be few if any significant technical
challenges to commercialization of the DMSR. One drawback is that it requires
expensive fissile U-235 in its fuel mix.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>However, it uses only a quarter of the U-235 of a standard Gen II or III
<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>LWR; there should be enough of this fuel
available to run DMSR plants for centuries. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Liquid
fluoride thorium reactor</span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The liquid fluoride thorium reactor (LFTR), also a
salt cooled thermal design, has many inherent advantages.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The basic design was conceived in the 1950s
by the nuclear physicist Alvin Weinberg and colleagues at the Oak Ridge
National Laboratory.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>However, in part
because the LFTR’s operation produced essentially no plutonium, the design lost
out in the 1960s to the LWR concept.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>(At
the time, plutonium was a desired byproduct of nuclear plants because it could
be used for nuclear weapons.)<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">As with the DMSR (above), the LFTR contains its
fuel, which in this case is thorium only, within a liquid fluoride salt,
typically a mixture of beryllium and lithium fluoride.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The reaction is started with a fissile
material, such as uranium with an enriched concentration of the fissile U-235.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Neutrons from fission of U-235 are absorbed
by thorium-233, which spontaneously converts to U-233, which is itself fissile
and then continues the chain reaction.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A
typical LFTR design uses two loops, one, the core salt loop, contains the
dissolved fuel and in which the reactions occur.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The second loop receives the heat created by
the nuclear reactions in the first loop and transfers it to a Brayton engine or
another turbine unit that produces electricity.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Fission products are continuously
removed by chemical processes from the core salt loop, and fresh thorium is
added as necessary. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">LFTRs are inherently safe; if the nuclear reactions increase
for some reason, the extra heat expands the molten salt and pushes it out of
the critical core region into adjacent pipes where the concentration of thorium
and U-233 drop below the level at which the chain nuclear reaction can be
sustained, and the reactions stop.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>As
added insurance, the LFTR has a freeze plug – a plug of salt kept solid by a
cooling fan.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If electric power should
fail, the fan stops and the freeze plug melts, causing the salt from the core
region to drain into the adjacent pipes where their concentration drops below
the reaction-sustaining level. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A LFTR
cannot melt down.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It operates with salt
in the molten state.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If a pipe, pump, or
vessel should rupture, the salt would drain out and solidify. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The thorium process produces less waste than the
current LWR plants for two reasons.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>One
is that the fuel is within the liquid matrix, which continually circulates, and
so the fuel is continuously exposed to a neutron flux.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>So the long-lived transuranics (like Pu-239)
that are produced will eventually be destroyed either by fission or by
transmutation to a fissile element that will later fission.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But with the solid fuel rods used with
today’s LWRs, lots of transuranics linger in the rods when they are taken out
of service.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The second reason is that,
while uranium and thorium-fueled reactors produce essentially the same fission
products, thorium-fueled reactors produce far fewer transuranic actinides (the
worst of which is Pu-239) because Th 232 requires 7 neutron absorptions to make
Pu-239, whereas U-238 requires only one neutron absorption.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>After 300 years LFTR waste radiotoxicity would
be a thousand times less than the waste from a LWR.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The LFTR is proliferation resistant.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The U-233 that is produced by the reactions
of thorium is always contaminated with U-232.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>This isotope has a short-half life and rapidly decays into products that
are intensely radioactive, so much so that stealing some U-233 would likely
result in immediate and severe radiation exposure to the thief.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Another advantage of the LFTR is that thorium is
relatively plentiful.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>According to
researcher Robert Hargraves, the earth’s crust contains approximately 26 grams
of thorium per cubic meter.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A LFTR can
convert 26 g of thorium to over 250,000 kWh of electricity, which would be
worth $7,500 at 3 cents/kWh.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>On the
other hand, a cubic meter of coal, currently worth in the neighborhood of $230,
can make only about 13,000 kWh of electricity worth only $700 at today’s 5
cents/kWh typical prices.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The world consumes about 500 quads of energy per
year, which is about 500,000,000,000 GJ.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>The energy that would come from thorium in a LFTR is about 80 GJ per
gram of thorium. If all the world’s energy came from thorium, world demand
would be 500.000,000,000/80 grams per year, or 6250 tons per year.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The World Nuclear Association’s conservative
estimate of 2 Mt of thorium reserves implies a 300 year supply.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>After this time civilization could mine
thorium distributed throughout the earth’s crust, which contains 12 parts per
million.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Obtaining 6250 t of thorium
would require mining 500 megatons of material per year.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In comparison, world coal mining is 8,000
megatons per year, with reserves of about 150 years.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The earth’s continental crust contains of
4,000 Gt of thorium, nearly enough for a million years of energy from thorium.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref32" style="mso-endnote-id: edn32;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[32]</span></span></span></span></span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The LFTR is a
potential evolutionary bridge to commercialization of fast reactors; its
dissolved fuel, pool type design (where the fuel is immersed in the coolant),
and molten salt coolant are also features of the molten salt fast reactor
design (see below).<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Challenges to the LFTR’s commercialization are that
it requires careful monitoring and filtering to remove fission products from
the core molten salt. Processes to do this have not been demonstrated at the
commercial scale; more chemical engineering is needed. Also, it is not clear
how well the materials of the pipes, pumps etc. will hold up over long-term
exposure to the radiation and chemical byproducts produced within the core
salt. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Sodium
cooled fast reactor</span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The sodium cooled fast reactor (SFR) uses
unmoderated, i.e. fast, neutrons and liquid sodium metal as a coolant. Since
sodium is liquid at the reactor’s operating temperature, the reactor does not
need to be pressurized.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The U.S.
experimental breeder reactor II (EBR-II), which operated at Idaho’s National
Laboratory from 1965 to 1994, was of this type.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>One specific new design in this category, the traveling wave reactor
(TWR) is under development by the private company TerraPower.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The TWR will use depleted uranium for
fuel.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The “traveling wave” concept has
been compared to a burning cigar.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It can
be thought of as if the reaction is contained in a vessel and proceeds from one
edge to the other.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>On one end is spent
fuel.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In the center, where the reactions
take place, is fissile material, and on the other end is unused fuel.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The area of nuclear reaction migrates through
the material over a period of 20 years.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In
the current design, the reaction proceeds from the center of a compartment
filled with “fuel pins” that contain the fuel material, depleted uranium (which
has a low percentage of U-235). <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The reaction
is started with fissile material in the center. Neutrons from the critical
reaction in the center are absorbed by U-238 in the surrounding pins,
converting the U-238 to plutonium-239, which fissions and carries the reaction
our radially from the center. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Sodium has a high heat capacity, and excellent
thermal conductivity, which helps make the SFR thermally efficient.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It also is efficient at burning fissionable
material, and can make use of unenriched uranium.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>For example, the U.S. government owns 500,000
tons of U-238 left over from enrichment plants making fuel for LWRs. This could
fuel SFR plants for 500 years.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Known
uranium reserves are much greater than this, and if the uranium in seawater is
also considered, the fuel supply is inexhaustible. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Challenges remain.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>The high irradiation environment of fast reactors, and the high
temperature at which the SFR will operate can cause metal embrittlement and
potential structural failure over time. Materials better able to resist
irradiation must be developed and approved. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Despite the challenges, the benefits of the SFR
approach have led France, Japan, and South Korea to select the SFR as their
main focus for nuclear research, development, and commercialization.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Lead
cooled fast reactor</span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The lead cooled fast reactor (LFR) is similar in
concept to the SFR, except that it uses liquid lead as a coolant rather than
liquid sodium.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Lead is much easier to
handle, since it does not burn when exposed to air or water. LFRs run at higher
temperatures than SFRs and have lower core irradiation. The former Soviet Union
first developed LFRs and has significant experience in building and operating
them.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A LFR would need to be refueled
every 7 to 8 years instead of every two years for LWRs. Smaller LFR designs
could go for up to 20 years before refueling.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>All LFR designs are passively safe and thermally efficient.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>They could essentially be sold as nuclear
batteries, shipped on-site self-contained, ready to run for 10 years with
little maintenance.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Challenges include the fact that lead, while it is
chemically inert, gives off significant amounts of radiation for a long period
of time after it has been used to cool a LFR.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Unlike sodium or fluoride salts, it must be disposed of as low-level
radioactive waste after use.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Also, lead
is quite dense, putting extra load on pumps and fuel handling equipment.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>For this reason, LFRs are likely to be small
– less than 100MW in power output. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Lead
coolants are also corrosive at high temperatures.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>This problem can be mitigated, but it
requires precise control and monitoring, which has yet to be proven
economically viable. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Molten
salt fast reactor</span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The molten salt fast reactor (MSFR) uses either
molten salt or solid fuel, and a salt coolant. Other than its use of fast
neutrons, it is similar in design to salt cooled thermal reactors such as the LFTR
(see above). MSFRs have higher thermal efficiencies, approaching 55%, than
other designs.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The ability of this
design to employ liquid fuel greatly simplifies the fuel cycle; the fuel does
not need to be machined and fabricated, and new fuel can be added continuously
while the reactor is running, and transuranics and fission products can be
continuously removed. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Challenges are similar to those facing the LFTR
design, and include development of efficient processes to remove reaction
products from the coolant and to reprocess the fuel on site.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Due to their higher operating temperatures,
materials that can resist corrosion sufficiently in thermal reactors like the
LFTR might not work with the MSFR.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">However, the MSFR appeals to entrepreneurs because
of its inherent safety and simplicity and lack of a need for major fuel
fabrication steps.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In can burn thorium.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>China appears to be rapidly scaling up is
MSFR research and development efforts. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Other
fission designs</span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The Gen IV fission reactor designs listed above appear
to be the most promising designs based on qualities including passive safety,
thermal efficiency, operation at atmospheric pressure, inclusion of at least
some off-the-shelf technology components, and adaptability to modular
construction, there are other designs that have certain advantages.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>These, also discussed in the referenced
Breakthrough Institute report, include high temperature gas reactors,
super-critical water reactors, and gas-cooled fast reactors. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Fusion
reactor</span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Fusion, where hydrogen atoms are pressed together
until they fuse, giving off huge amounts of energy, is what powers the
sun.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>However, the sun has massive
gravity which essentially pulls atoms together until they fuse.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>This has not been accomplished on earth; no
one has been able to sustain a fusion reaction that releases more energy than
is consumed in the effort to heat and pressurize atoms until they fuse. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">However, fusion presents the possibility of an
energy source with no waste, no weapons-type materials, and abundant fuel. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Because fusion requires intense energy to contain
and heat atoms sufficiently to cause the fusion reaction, there is no risk of
runaway heating.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If power should be
lost, heat production would stop immediately; there are no lingering
radioactive fission products that would continue to produce heat in the event
of a cooling failure. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">If and when fusion is demonstrated, it will be a
potentially game-changing event.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It has
been pursued for decades, with only incremental progress.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Nevertheless its possibilities continue to
drive research.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Major efforts to develop
workable fusion continue, e.g. the International Thermonuclear Experimental
Reactor (ITER) in France.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref33" style="mso-endnote-id: edn33;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[33]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<u><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Could nuclear grow fast enough?</span></u></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Regardless of whether fusion ever comes to be, it is
possible that some of the Gen IV fission designs will be do-able commercially
within the next decade or so, if not in the U.S., then elsewhere.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A relevant question is whether nuclear power
could conceivably grow fast enough to play a significant role in ending the
world’s dependence on fossil fuels in time to avoid the worst impacts of global
warming. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">France’s history suggests that there is at least an
outside possibility that nuclear power could grow fast enough to supply much of
the world’s power by 2050.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Between 1980
and 1990, production of electricity from nuclear power in France grew from 61
TWh/y to 314 TWh/y, an average growth rate of about 25 TWh per year.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref34" style="mso-endnote-id: edn34;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[34]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Based on 2014 GDP, the U.S. economy is about
six times the size of France’s.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>So, it
seems feasible that, with a similar effort, the U.S. could grow nuclear power
at 150 TWh per year.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If the U.S. did
this, it would be producing an additional 5100 TWh/y from nuclear by 2050.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If it kept all its current reactors on line,
the total from nuclear power would be close to 6000 TWh/y, corresponding to
about 20 quads.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Of course, many factors
that tend to slow growth of all power sources, especially siting issues, would
have to be managed for this level of growth to happen. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">As discussed above, solar and wind energy appear to
be currently growing at a rate that could be linear, not exponential.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In the U.S., a projection of the apparent
current linear growth rate of both solar and wind to 2050 will lead to
production of a total of about 5 quads of energy. If their growth could be
doubled, they might supply 10 quads by 2050.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>If the U.S. grew nuclear power at twice the rate that France did
(prorated to U.S. GDP), nuclear might supply 40 quads by 2050.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If other efficiency measures were taken, the
U.S. could be largely powered by carbon-free energy by 2050.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Powering all the world’s nations with
carbon-free energy could be a taller order, if, as discussed above, the
developing world’s demand for electricity rises dramatically as expected.
Nevertheless, if Gen IV reactors could be built in a modular fashion, much faster
growth could be possible, and a dystopian future, marred by floods and droughts
and other impacts of out-of-control global warming driven by promiscuous
burning of fossil fuels could be avoided. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<u><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">An up-to-date perspective on the risks
of radiation would facilitate the growth of nuclear</span></u></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Fears about and prejudices against nuclear power are
largely based on old information.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A
closer look at current data reduces many of these apprehensions considerably. There
are concerns that remain.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But it is
increasingly clear that the risks of nuclear power can be handled with
up-to-date technology and up-to-date regulations.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Radiation</span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Nuclear power unlocks the energy of atomic nuclei
and in the process releases ionizing radiation.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Such radiation, capable of knocking electrons from atoms, has long been
recognized as dangerous because it can destroy tissues, including basic
cellular machinery such as DNA.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>High
levels of radiation are deadly, and nuclear power plants, X-ray machines, and
any technology that involves ionizing radiation must be shielded to prevent
exposures to living systems and also to materials that could be damaged by
having electrons knocked off of some of their atoms.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In theory, even a dose of radiation intense
enough to dislodge only one electron from one atom in one strand of DNA could
change that DNA enough to foul up its replication and cause cancer.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The notion that any radiation is harmful is the
basis of the linear, no-threshold (LNT) model, which has been widely used to
estimate actual cancer risks from low-level radiation and underpins
international guidelines for radiation protection.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Basing their concerns on the LNT model, many
have fought nuclear power for decades and continue to do so.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Even the low levels of radiation that emanate
from nuclear power plants’ normal operations and waste management systems have
been considered unacceptable by nuclear power opponents. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">But increasingly, Americans and others in the industrialized
world are exposed to greater amounts of low level radiation.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In 1990, the average U.S. resident received
an annual dose of 360 millirems (mrem) of radiation.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>About 300 mrem of the total was from natural
sources.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>About 200 mrem of this average
natural source was from radon gas, which is released from the gradual decay of
radioactive isotopes in soil and rocks and is present in varying concentrations
in the air virtually everywhere.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>About
30 mrem of the natural sources total was from cosmic rays, and another 30 mrem
was from radioactive minerals other than radon naturally present in soils and
rocks.<span style="margin: 0px;"> <a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref35" style="mso-endnote-id: edn35;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[35]</span></span></span></span></a></span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>For example, natural gas used in a home adds
about 9 mrem per year.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>About 40 mrem of
natural background radiation was from substances in food and water such as
potassium, which has the radioactive isotope potassium-40. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The other 60 mrem Americans received on
average in 1990 was from artificial sources.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Of that, about 40 mrem was from X-rays.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Another 10 or 15 mrem was from nuclear medicine, and another 10 was from
consumer products, including building materials.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>About 0.1 mrem of the artificial total was
from nuclear power plants.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Worldwide,
the average annual per-capita effective dose from medicine (about one-fifth of
the total radiation received from all sources) approximately doubled from
around 1990 through 2007. <a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref36" style="mso-endnote-id: edn36;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[36]</span></span></span></span></span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Natural exposures have not changed.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>What has changed is that people in the
industrialized world by their own choice (albeit, perhaps unknowingly) have
taken on additional exposures through medical procedures.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>These include an average per person of about
150 mrem from CT scans, 75 mrem from nuclear medicine, 45 mrem from
fluoroscopy, and 30 mrem from X-rays.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref37" style="mso-endnote-id: edn37;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[37]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Clearly, people have decided that the risks
of radiation from these procedures, whatever they may be, are outweighed by the
potential benefits; it’s better to have a CT scan (about 1000 mrem each) than a
brain bleed, better to have an upper and lower GI series (1400 mrem) than
undiagnosed digestive problems, better to have fluoroscopy than unguided
surgery.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">And adding to the conviction that willing acceptance
of medical procedures involving radiation makes sense, data on background
radiation point to a conclusion that low levels of radiation are indeed not
worth worrying about.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Background
radiation from natural sources varies widely throughout the world.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Radon levels in the air are a function of the
underlying bedrock in a region.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The
intensity of cosmic rays is correlated with altitude.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>So, for example, a person living in Colorado
is exposed to background radiation amounting to 400 mrem per year, while a
Florida resident’s typical background exposure is about 160 mrem per year.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Yet people in Colorado have one of the lowest
average incidences of cancer in the U.S.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref38" style="mso-endnote-id: edn38;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[38]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>There are areas in the world, for example the
Guarapari coastal region of Brazil; Ramsar, Iran and Kerala, India, where
background radiation exposures are as high as 13,000 mrem per year.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Long-term epidemiological studies of these
populations have not shown any significant cancer risk from these background
exposures.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref39" style="mso-endnote-id: edn39;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[39]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">One inadvertent experiment is particularly
compelling.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Thirty years ago about 200
buildings were constructed in Taiwan from steel inadvertently contaminated with
radioactive cobalt that was unknown at the time.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Over the years, the approximately 10,000
residents of these buildings were exposed to an average radiation dose of about
10,500 mrem per year.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Yet, a study in
2006 of these people found fewer cancer cases compared with the general public;
95 vs. the expected 115.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref40" style="mso-endnote-id: edn40;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[40]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>There is actually some reason to think that a
certain amount of radiation may be healthful, based on laboratory tests with
animals and bacteria.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref41" style="mso-endnote-id: edn41;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[41]</span></span></span></span></span></a><sup>,<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref42" style="mso-endnote-id: edn42;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[42]</span></span></span></span></span></a></sup>
The possible healthful effects of radiation, known as hormesis, may be due to
low exposures stimulating the immune system and causing the release of
protective antioxidants.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref43" style="mso-endnote-id: edn43;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[43]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Clearly people aren’t deciding where to live based
on background radiation, and they aren’t typically shunning medical procedures
involving radiation, which are growing more common.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If there is an increase in cancer from low
levels of radiation, it is not showing up in health statistics and there is no
evidence that people are changing their behavior because of it. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Nuclear
waste</span></u></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The problem of what to do with nuclear waste is
considered by some to be intractable; “What about the waste?” is a question sometimes
clearly intended to stop conversation.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>But in light of the lack of concern about low level radiation
demonstrated by peoples’ behavior, the waste problem appears wholly manageable.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The problem becomes still more manageable if
Gen IV reactors become the new norm of nuclear power, as these plants will
produce far less waste and what they do produce will be less radioactive,
especially regarding long-lived transuranics. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Current nuclear reactors do produce highly
radioactive waste resulting from the fission of Uranium-235 in the reactor’s
fuel rods.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It is initially physically
hot.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It includes “transuranic” elements,
such as Americium-241 (used in smoke detectors) which have atomic weights
greater than uranium’s.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Also present are
fission products, which are atomic fragments and elements with atomic weights
less than uranium’s, such as iodine.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Especially problematic in the waste are Iodine-131, Plutonium-24,
Strontium-90, and Cesium-137.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>These have
half-lives (the amount of time it takes for half the radiation to dissipate) of
8 days, 14.4 years, 28.8 years, and 30.1 years, respectively.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref44" style="mso-endnote-id: edn44;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[44]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>While these elements are decaying, they are
emitting radiation in various forms that is, initially, intense.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">There are also long-lived elements in the waste,
such as Plutonium-239, with a half-life of 24,100 years.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Over time, some of the Uranium-235 that is
left in the waste continues to fission, leading to a gradual increase in
isotopes of Plutonium and a few other isotopes, some of which will remain
radioactive for thousands of<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>years.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It is the long lifetimes of some of these
elements that often worry people the most, and that leads to despair about the
idea of having to construct a haven for wastes that will be safe for time spans
beyond our ken.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But an important aspect
of these long-lived wastes is frequently missed.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If an element has a long half-life, it is not
very radioactive, by definition.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A
sepulcher of monumental proportions and timeless durability is not necessary
hold it.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>As noted in a report by David
Kosson and Charles Powers, if used fuel is allowed to sit in safe storage for
90 years, much of the heat and radioactivity decays away.<span style="margin: 0px;"> <a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref45" style="mso-endnote-id: edn45;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[45]</span></span></span></span></a></span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>At
this point it is much more benign and easier to manage.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>You cannot say that about some other
industrial wastes, including non-radioactive but very toxic isotopes of heavy
metals such as cadmium, mercury, and lead.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>These will never go away.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">But clearly there must be a place to put nuclear
waste that is isolated from the environment for the next few hundred years at
least.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>As is well-known, the U.S. hasn’t
settled on a location for the long-term storage of nuclear waste.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The site at Yucca Mountain appears unlikely
to ever be approved, due in large part to opposition from the state of
Nevada.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In the meantime, the nation’s
nuclear plants have developed an interim solution.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>They put their spent fuel and associated
wastes in pools of water to cool it for a few years, and then pack it in dry
concrete and steel casks and store it on site.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>The fact that these interim storage sites have been successfully storing
the high-level waste for several decades, during which time much of the
original radioactivity has dissipated, has led to a proposal that was outlined
in the referenced Kosson & Powers report. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">In that report, the authors noted that much of the
problem of nuclear waste storage started with an anachronistic policy enacted
in 1982. The policy essentially stipulated that used fuel should be disposed of
in a geologic repository as soon as one becomes available.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>However, as noted above, after about 90
years, much of the original heat and radioactivity of the waste has decayed
away, which reduces the size, complexity, and cost of disposal in a long-term
repository, and also buys time. In theory, used fuel could even be reprocessed
at some point in the next century if the engineering challenges can be
overcome.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Kosson and Powers suggested that four regional
used-fuel storage facilities be set up to act as transfer stations. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>They could be located so as to provide
geographic equity and allow relocation of the backlog of used fuel to locations
where it could be stored safely, securely, and efficiently for up to 90 years
before reprocessing or permanent disposal.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>A fund established by the Nuclear Policy Act of 1982 that requires
electric utilities to pay a fee on nuclear-generated electricity, which now
totals approximately $25 billion, could in theory pay for these sites.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The authors, recognizing that public
opposition is likely to be an issue, recommended that informed consent, equity,
and fair compensation should be the bases for deciding temporary storage sites.
One possibility would be to use a "reverse auction" to enable
prospective host communities to win regional support for the sites.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>With this approach, the federal government
might allot, say, a billion dollars, and request bids from interested
communities detailing how they would spend it to address local impacts and
statewide concerns associated with a proposed facility.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">At the same time, Kosson and Powers pointed out, the
U.S. should continue to seek at least one permanent long-term waste storage
site, which will eventually be needed.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>The entire process should be done deliberately and transparently, with
multiple layers of protection and credible standards.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">There are numerous sites that would be suitable for
long-term waste storage.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In fact, there
is one currently operating, the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant near Carlsbad,
N.M., which handles military radioactive waste.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Although limited to military waste by law, this facility, in a deep salt
bed, has room for much more waste.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The EPA, basing its rules on the LNT model, has a
standard that requires that nuclear sites ensure that nearby residents will be
exposed to no more than 15 mrem per year.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>But, no convincing evidence has been obtained, despite hundreds of studies,
of a correlation between incidence of cancer and exposures to radiation of less
than 100 millisieverts (10,000 mrem).<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref46" style="mso-endnote-id: edn46;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[46]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In light of this emerging knowledge about the
lack of harm from low-level radiation, EPA’s 15 mrem level, equivalent to 50%
of the radiation exposure from a mammogram, 5% of the average U.S. background
radiation, and 1.5 % of the radiation from a CT scan, is extremely
conservative. This level, which may in fact be unrealistically low, could
nevertheless be readily achieved by any rationally-designed waste
repository.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Such a site should present
no worries to an informed public.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Low-level radiation is nevertheless radiation, and
thus could still present significant health risks.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Although, as discussed above, it may not be
as risky as once thought, getting a clear picture of what risks it does present
is not easy.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Estimating lifetime
exposure is difficult, and it is difficult to distinguish radiation
exposure-related cancers from other cancers.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Currently, a “million person” study is underway, headed by Dr. John
Boice,<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref47" style="mso-endnote-id: edn47;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[47]</span></span></span></span></span></a>
to try to get a clearer picture, but the data is not yet all analyzed.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref48" style="mso-endnote-id: edn48;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[48]</span></span></span></span></span></a> <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The U.S. EPA has also been considering the
issue for several years.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref49" style="mso-endnote-id: edn49;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[49]</span></span></span></span></span></a> <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Accidents</span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">As is the case with every large-scale industrial
process, accidents happen.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>There are
three nuclear accidents that have been burned into the consciousness of
virtually everyone at all concerned about the issue; Three Mile Island,
Chernobyl, and Fukushima.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Yet
ironically, as frightening has these events have been, the passage of time and
the gathering of long-term data has further demonstrated that low-level
radiation is not as dangerous as has been thought, and that basing policies and
regulations for nuclear safety on the LNT model, insofar as low-level radiation
is concerned, is very likely an over-reaction.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The scientist John Gofman, credited as the father of
the LNT model, predicted in 1979 that 333 excess cancer or leukemia deaths
would result from the 1979 Three Mile Island accident.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But as of 2013, no excess mortality in the
exposed population had been observed.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref50" style="mso-endnote-id: edn50;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[50]</span></span></span></span></span></a> Three
months after the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, Gofman predicted it would eventually
cause 475,000 fatal cancers plus about an equal number of non-fatal cases.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref51" style="mso-endnote-id: edn51;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[51]</span></span></span></span></span></a> However,
as of 2008, the only proven toll from the Chernobyl accident was about 50
people who died, including 28 emergency workers who died almost immediately
from radiation sickness, about 15 who died of fatal thyroid cancers (this
cancer is not usually fatal), and about 6,000 children in Russia, Belarus and
Ukraine who suffered thyroid cancers that were successfully treated.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>There was no persuasive evidence of any other
health effect in the general population that could be attributed to radiation
exposure.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref52" style="mso-endnote-id: edn52;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[52]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A full report on the long-term health effects
from the accident, prepared by a team of experts from seven United Nations
organizations that included representatives from the governments of Belarus,
Ukraine and the Russian Federation, was published by the World Health
Organization in 2006.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It projected that
eventually 4,000 people in the exposed population may die from cancer related
to the Chernobyl accident.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref53" style="mso-endnote-id: edn53;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[53]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In that population, about 100,000 people will
die of cancer anyway; 4,000 additional deaths from cancer, if they occur, is
within the level of natural statistical variation and is not readily
distinguishable as an impact. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The Chernobyl accident included a fire and
explosions that spread radioactive debris across a wide region.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Initially some plants and animals, especially
pine trees, died from the radiation.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Now, although some places in the exposed region have background
radiation not much higher than normal background levels,<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref54" style="mso-endnote-id: edn54;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[54]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>hot spots remain with levels of radiation that,
if you stayed there for a year, would cause an exposure of 35,000 mrem, about
100 times higher than typical background levels.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>People were required to evacuate an area half
the size of Yellowstone National Park around the stricken reactor.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Today, as detailed by Mary Mycio<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref55" style="mso-endnote-id: edn55;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[55]</span></span></span></span></span></a>
and others, this exclusion zone has become a wildlife preserve where birds and
mammals, many of them rare and endangered, thrive.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Large mammals in the zone, not found much
elsewhere in the region, include boars, red deer (elk), roe deer, European
bison, moose, wolves, foxes, beavers, and Przewalski’s horses, a species of
wild horse that has been brought back from the cusp of extinction.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Clearly, wildlife has benefitted more from
the departure of humans than it has suffered from the relatively high
background radiation that remains. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The 2011 accident at Fukushima, Japan is the most
recent. It revived anti-nuclear sentiment in many places, such as Germany,
leading to accelerated phase-outs of nuclear reactors.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But once again, the aftermath of Fukushima is
showing that low-level radiation is not the danger it was thought to be. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The accident featured melt-downs of the cores of
three of the six reactors at the Daiichi nuclear power plant site near
Fukushima, and a partial melting of spent fuel rods from a fourth reactor. The
intense heat involved caused a build-up of pressure of steam.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The steam, reacting with the zirconium alloy
that cladded the core structures, produced hydrogen gas, which added to the
pressure build-up.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>To prevent an
explosion, the pressure was vented, releasing some hydrogen and also
radioactive fission products. Nevertheless, hydrogen explosions occurred in two
of the reactors, blowing apart a secondary containment building.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Leakage of radioactive fission products also
occurred from the third reactor.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>All in
all the accident released about 18% of the “iodine-131-equivalent”
radioactivity released by Chernobyl.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref56" style="mso-endnote-id: edn56;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[56]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>More radiation was not released because,
unlike with Chernobyl, the primary reactor containment structures were not
destroyed; the radiation was released only in three major spikes that occurred
within several days after the accident began.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>(Chernobyl had a flimsy, essentially non-existent container structure.) </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The Fukushima nuclear accident occurred in the
context of a huge natural disaster including an earthquake and a tidal
wave.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>A year after the disaster, 19,000
people had died and 27,000 had been injured.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Four hundred thousand buildings were destroyed and nearly 700,000 more
were damaged.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref57" style="mso-endnote-id: edn57;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[57]</span></span></span></span></span></a>
</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">However, none of these casualties were caused by
radiation, and the number of additional cancer cases in coming years is
expected to be so low as to be undetectable.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref58" style="mso-endnote-id: edn58;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[58]</span></span></span></span></span></a> <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>In a sense, 1,600 people did die from the
accident; not from radiation, but from the stress of forced relocations, including
the highly risky evacuations of hospital intensive care units.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>An area 20 kilometers in radius around the
plant was evacuated.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Had the evacuees
stayed home, their cumulative exposure over four years in the most intensely
radioactive areas would have been about 70 millisieverts (about 7000 mrem),
which translates to about 1800 mrem per year; about six times typical
background levels.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But most residents in
that zone would have received far less; on the order of 400 mrem per year.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref59" style="mso-endnote-id: edn59;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[59]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Each of these three major accidents was caused by a
failure of cooling which enabled the reactive cores to overheat, leading to
releases of pressure and radiation and explosions.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The Three Mile Island accident was driven by human
error when night-shift operators made a series of mistakes in judgement and
turned a minor problem, a failure of a cooling pump, into a major one as they
turned off an emergency cooling pump.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>This allowed the core to overheat and eventually melt. The operator’s
confusion at the time was fed by lack of proper monitoring systems and
malfunctioning alarm signals.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The Chernobyl disaster was caused by an unauthorized
experiment. The operators were curious if the reactor’s dynamos could deliver
enough energy to shut down the plant if the power was lost.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>During a scheduled shutdown, they turned off
an emergency cooling system to conserve energy.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Next, they withdrew control rods, which normally moderate a fission
reaction to keep it under control, to increase the power output from the plant
as its power production wound down.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>More
errors were made, and the reactor’s operation rapidly destabilized, fuel
disintegrated, and huge steam explosions occurred throwing burning blocks of
graphite and spewing a plume of radioactive debris that rose 10 km into the
air.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The Fukushima accident was the result of a hammering
by natural forces.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>First, a magnitude 9
earthquake, the largest to ever strike Japan and one of the largest on record
anywhere, occurred at sea 95 miles north of the plant.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>(The earthquake magnitude scale is
logarithmic; a magnitude 9 earthquake is 100 times stronger than the largest
earthquakes ever to strike the continental U.S., which were category 7
earthquakes in California.) The reactors at the plant withstood this quake and
immediately shut down as they were designed to do when the quake caused a loss
of electric power.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The plant’s emergency
diesel generators then kicked in, also as designed.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But not long after that a 45-foot tidal wave
smashed over the plant’s approximately 30 foot protective wall, flooding the
generators and stalling them out.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Limited additional power from battery back-up was insufficient. At that
point, with no power to run the cooling pumps to keep the reactor cores from
overheating, the situation rapidly got out of control, with explosions and
releases of radiation soon following.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The Chernobyl reactor was a type of reactor
currently used only in the former Soviet Union.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>It had essentially no containment structure to hold radiation released
by an accident, and its fission reaction was cooled by water and moderated by
graphite, which is combustible.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>This
combination is dangerous; water actually absorbs some of the neutrons created
during fission, and so helps slow down the fission reaction. <a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref60" style="mso-endnote-id: edn60;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[60]</span></span></span></span></span></a>
But, if the water turns to steam, it cannot absorb as many neutrons and so the
fission reaction speeds up.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>This
“positive void coefficient” aspect means that when the reactor started to get
out of control, it turned water into steam, accelerating the fission rate,
turning more water into steam, and so on.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>This positive feedback loop drove the reaction out of control.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The reactors at all three plants were so-called
Generation II designs.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>All such reactors
share a common feature; they are virtually impossible to cool without
continuous electric power to run their cooling systems.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Thus, if they have to shut down and cannot
provide their own power, they must get it from somewhere else.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If the grid goes down, and their emergency
power supply systems fail, they are in trouble.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">As discussed above, the generation III and III+
plants being built today have passive cooling systems that, if electric power
supply fails, terminate the fission reaction and keep the core cool so it won’t
melt down.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Terrorism
and weapons proliferation</span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">There are better targets for terrorists than nuclear
plants, and nuclear plants, particularly if they are Gen IVplants, are not good
sources for materials with which to make weapons.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Today’s industrial society involves the routine
processing and shipment of many materials capable of life-threatening
mishaps.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Trains regularly haul tank cars
of chlorine gas, vinyl chloride, sulfuric acid and other materials that could
kills hundreds of people if attacked and disrupted at an opportune location by
a terrorist. Chemical plants are arguably better targets for terrorists than
nuclear plants, hardened and fortified with thick concrete containment
structures sufficient to contain radiation.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Consider, for example, that over six thousand people died from the
Bhopal chemical plant accident in India while about 56 died from
Chernobyl.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">And it should be noted that many technologies and
materials we encounter daily are quite dangerous.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Gasoline is explosive; thousands die in auto
accidents yearly because of fires and explosions.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Natural gas periodically blows up a
building.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Grid electricity kills people
and starts fires.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Hydrogen, thought by
some to be the fuel of the future, weakens pipes, can be ignited with a stray
spark, and burns with an invisible flame.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">What about nuclear bombs?<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The idea that more nuclear power plants means
that more nuclear material will be available for making bombs has a certain
logic.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But the capability of creating
bomb-worthy materials does not necessarily translate to actually making bombs.
For example, nitrates are key fertilizers; nitrate is a major plant food, often
a limiting nutrient.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Nitrates are also
used to make expolsives such as TNT.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>Nitrates are made industrially in processes that start with the famous
Haber-Bosch process that reacts hydrogen and nitrogen to make ammonia.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But we don’t view fertilizer plants as
terrorist magnets.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Similarly with nuclear technology; some 31 nations
operate nuclear power plants, but only 7 of these have nuclear weapons.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Just about any nuclear technology, with
enough knowledge and determination, can be modified to produce weapons-grade
material.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>But nuclear weapons and
nuclear power plants aren’t all that similar.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>If a nation wanted to covertly acquire weapons-grade nuclear material,
developing a civilian nuclear energy program would be a costly and inefficient
way to do it.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>With adequate controls and
inspections, nuclear power generation will not lead to nuclear weapons
production.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Moreover, nuclear plants are now contributing to the
destruction of nuclear weapons.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>One way
this is happening is through a joint-U.S. Russia program that began in
1994.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>With this approach, weapons-grade
material, which is highly enriched (95% U-235) is blended with low-enriched
uranium to make a fuel suitable for reactors. Currently about 20% of the
electricity Americans use is produced by nuclear power and about half of that
is fueled by weapons grade material. This means that about 10% of the
electricity Americans use is fueled by Russian missles and bombs.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref61" style="mso-endnote-id: edn61;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[61]</span></span></span></span></span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Fuel<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">The current generation of nuclear plants uses a
once-through fuel cycle that harvests the energy potential of only about 1% of
the fuel.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>The rest of this potential
resides in the waste.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Nevertheless,
nuclear ore and the nuclear fuel derived from it remain relatively inexpensive
and in plentiful supply, and no shortages loom in the foreseeable future.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref62" style="mso-endnote-id: edn62;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[62]</span></span></span></span></span></a> Should
ore of the quality being mined today become scarce, there is much more of lower
quality that could be used; cutting the grade of uranium ore in half probably
increases the available supply by a factor of eight.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref63" style="mso-endnote-id: edn63;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[63]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">More importantly, some of the Gen IV designs use
thorium, which, as discussed above, is more abundant than uranium. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Further, many of the Gen IV designs are more
efficient in their use of fuel, or are capable of creating more fissionable
material than they consume.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If some of
the new designs take hold, it should become feasible to extract uranium from
seawater, making it possible to run nuclear plants for several billion years.<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_ednref64" style="mso-endnote-id: edn64;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[64]</span></span></span></span></span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Summary
and Conclusion</span></b></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">There is almost certainly enough fossil fuel
resource remaining that, if burned, will push the world’s climate into a new
regime that will threaten human civilization and condemn future generations to
misery and strife. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Clearly fossil fuel combustion must be
curtailed.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Putting a price on the carbon
content of fuels is arguably the best way to do this.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Pricing carbon will be facilitated to the
extent that cost-competitive, low-carbon alternatives to fossil fuels exist and
to the degree that significant improvements in energy efficiency take place.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">It is likely, based on the most recent electricity
production data, that current-generation solar and wind are not the
revolutionary technologies some envision; they are not growing fast enough to
wean the world from fossil fuels in time to prevent the worst impacts of global
warming.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>It is important that research
and development continue with these renewable sources, that better electricity storage
technology be developed, and that energy efficiency be increased as much as
possible.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">It is also important that the potential of nuclear
power be neither ignored nor discounted based on arguments based on old
technology and the associated old problems. Dealing with global warming is an
“all hands on deck” situation.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>To cope
with it, the world almost certainly needs the power of the atom.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Although a more realistic view of the threat of
low-level radiation, possibly leading to moderation of regulations regarding
radiation safety and waste management, would be likely to ease a transition to next-generation
(i.e., Generation IV) nuclear power, a more realistic view and associated
regulatory changes are not necessary for this transition.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>And, such changes by themselves are not
likely to bring about a new growth phase of nuclear power.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Regulations and health concerns are not the prime
problem; Gen IV plants should be able to meet existing regulations more easily
that today’s Gen II and III plants. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">What is necessary is that Gen IV plants become cheap
enough to compete successfully with coal and natural gas.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>With a greater focus on the technological
challenges that remain, including use of computer-aided modeling and design
capabilities that were non-existent when many of the Gen IV designs were first
conceived, much progress could be made.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>There is reason for optimism. Rather than dwelling on the problems of
the existing generation of light-water reactors, the U.S. and other nations need
to take a fresh look at next-generation nuclear technology and consider
implementing policies that will encourage its development. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">Michael
Aucott, Ph.D.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null">m</a>laucott@gmail.com</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"></span><br />
<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;">April 11, 2017</span></div>
<div style="mso-element: endnote-list;">
<br />
<br />
References<br />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<div id="edn1" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[1]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Hansen, James, et al., 2015, Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence
from paleoclimate data, climate</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">modeling, and modern observations that 2</span><sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">o</span></sup><span style="font-size: x-small;"> C
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn27" style="mso-endnote-id: edn27;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[27]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span><a href="http://www.westinghousenuclear.com/New-Plants/AP1000-PWR"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">http://www.westinghousenuclear.com/New-Plants/AP1000-PWR</span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn28" style="mso-endnote-id: edn28;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[28]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Hargraves, Robert, 2012, </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Thorium: Energy
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</span></span><a href="http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview</span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
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Readiness, Modularity, and Efficiency,</span></i><span style="font-size: x-small;"> Breakthrough Institute, </span><a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/images/pdfs/Breakthrough_Institute_How_to_Make_Nuclear_Cheap.pdf"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">http://thebreakthrough.org/images/pdfs/Breakthrough_Institute_How_to_Make_Nuclear_Cheap.pdf</span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn31" style="mso-endnote-id: edn31;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[31]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn32" style="mso-endnote-id: edn32;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[32]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Hargraves, 2012</span></div>
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Country Nuclear Power Profiles, 2015 Edition, France; </span><a href="http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/CNPP2015_CD/countryprofiles/France/France.htm"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/CNPP2015_CD/countryprofiles/France/France.htm</span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn35" style="mso-endnote-id: edn35;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[35]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Spiro, Thomas, Kathleen Purvis-Roberts, and William Stigliani, 2012, </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Chemistry of the Environment, Third Edition</span></i><span style="font-size: x-small;">,
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn37" style="mso-endnote-id: edn37;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[37]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Spiro, et al., 2012</span></div>
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn38" style="mso-endnote-id: edn38;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[38]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;"> Fox,
Michael H., 2014, </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Why We Need Nuclear
Power: The Environmental Cas</span></i><span style="font-size: x-small;">e, Oxford University Press, p. 180 </span></div>
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn39" style="mso-endnote-id: edn39;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[39]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Fox, Michael H., 2014, p. 180 </span></div>
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn40" style="mso-endnote-id: edn40;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[40]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Johnson, George, 2015, When Radiation Isn’t the Risk, NY Times, September 22,
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn41" style="mso-endnote-id: edn41;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[41]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Wikipedia, 2016, Radiation Hormesis, </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_hormesis"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_hormesis</span></a><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;">accessed 2/24/16</span></div>
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn42" style="mso-endnote-id: edn42;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[42]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn43" style="mso-endnote-id: edn43;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[43]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Johnson, George, 2015</span></div>
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn44" style="mso-endnote-id: edn44;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[44]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Fox, Michael H., 2014, pp. 187-189</span></div>
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn45" style="mso-endnote-id: edn45;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[45]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Kosson, David, and Charles Powers, 2008, The U.S. Nuclear Waste Issue – Solved,
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<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1112/p09s01-coop.html"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1112/p09s01-coop.html</span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
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<div id="edn46" style="mso-element: endnote;">
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn46" style="mso-endnote-id: edn46;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[46]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Lynas, Mark, 2013, p. 53</span></div>
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<div id="edn47" style="mso-element: endnote;">
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn47" style="mso-endnote-id: edn47;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[47]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span><a href="http://www.pitt.edu/~super7/47011-48001/47941.pdf"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">http://www.pitt.edu/~super7/47011-48001/47941.pdf</span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn48" style="mso-endnote-id: edn48;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[48]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Lipoti, Jill, 2017, personal communication</span></div>
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn49" style="mso-endnote-id: edn49;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[49]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
For more information, see </span><a href="http://ncrponline.org/program-areas/pac-5-environmental-radiation-and-radioactive-waste-issues/"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">http://ncrponline.org/program-areas/pac-5-environmental-radiation-and-radioactive-waste-issues/</span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
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Wikipedia, 2016,</span><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gofman"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gofman</span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
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<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn51" style="mso-endnote-id: edn51;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[51]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Wikipedia, 2016,</span><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gofman"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gofman</span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
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<div id="edn54" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn54" style="mso-endnote-id: edn54;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[54]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Fox, Michael, 2013, p. 224</span></div>
</div>
<div id="edn55" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn55" style="mso-endnote-id: edn55;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[55]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Mycio, Mary, 2005, </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Wormwood Forest: A
Natural History of Chernobyl</span></i><span style="font-size: x-small;">, Joseph Henry Press</span></div>
</div>
<div id="edn56" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn56" style="mso-endnote-id: edn56;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[56]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Fox, Michael, 2013, p. 231</span></div>
</div>
<div id="edn57" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn57" style="mso-endnote-id: edn57;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[57]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Fox, Michael, 2013, referencing Wikipedia, 2011, Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami,
accessed 3/19/12, </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami</span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span></div>
</div>
<div id="edn58" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn58" style="mso-endnote-id: edn58;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[58]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Johnson, George, 2015</span></div>
</div>
<div id="edn59" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn59" style="mso-endnote-id: edn59;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[59]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Johnson, George, 2015</span></div>
</div>
<div id="edn60" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn60" style="mso-endnote-id: edn60;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[60]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Fox, Michael, 2013, p. 216</span></div>
</div>
<div id="edn61" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn61" style="mso-endnote-id: edn61;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[61]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Brand, Stewart, 2009, </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Whole Earth
Discipline</span></i><span style="font-size: x-small;">, Penguin Books </span></div>
</div>
<div id="edn62" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn62" style="mso-endnote-id: edn62;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[62]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Nordhaus, Ted., et al., 2014</span></div>
</div>
<div id="edn63" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn63" style="mso-endnote-id: edn63;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[63]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Deffeyes, Ken, 2010, </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">When Oil Peaked</span></i><span style="font-size: x-small;">,
p. 74,</span><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;">Hill and Wang</span></div>
</div>
<div id="edn64" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<a href="file:///C:/MLA/files_for_blog/Nuclear%20and%20Renewables/Warming%20_%20Renewables%20_%20Nuclear%20_%20MA%204-5-17b.docx" name="_edn64" style="mso-endnote-id: edn64;" title=""><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: blue;">[64]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Hansen, James, 2009, </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Storms of My
Grandchildren</span></i><span style="font-size: x-small;">, Bloomsbury, USA</span></div>
</div>
</div>
<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike>Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-51888729317414976322015-03-10T19:24:00.000-07:002015-03-29T08:51:54.814-07:00Science, God, and Truth: Does Every Scientist Believe in God Without Realizing It?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0beJ0nEQuPEUbMTGKimhj9Q0ZmfDj9Qj8HQrwsbeCmhd7BLIXP0kLTbMQdnTTe7SVx6io-eYa3TETM18dJG6o2tQXvbiW2YP2bCy5zCaNZ_nE2x_pjPl47ywNIYkYmtqunkB9JCXkuxE/s1600/Sand+Dollar+Sanibel+Jan+2015.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0beJ0nEQuPEUbMTGKimhj9Q0ZmfDj9Qj8HQrwsbeCmhd7BLIXP0kLTbMQdnTTe7SVx6io-eYa3TETM18dJG6o2tQXvbiW2YP2bCy5zCaNZ_nE2x_pjPl47ywNIYkYmtqunkB9JCXkuxE/s1600/Sand+Dollar+Sanibel+Jan+2015.JPG" height="240" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Every so
often I read an essay by a scientist trying to explain why belief in God is incompatible
with science, about how advances in knowledge gained by science have so whittled
away at the notion of a higher being that nothing remains except foolish
superstition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Invariably, it seems to
me, these essays make the same fundamental error.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
error is as old as argument; it’s the straw man fallacy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To deny the existence of God, one must first
define God.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If we define God as a large
old man with a white beard, sitting on a throne somewhere above the clouds, who
listens to every prayer, it’s easy enough to demonstrate that there’s no
evidence that He exists.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>God as depicted
in ancient texts like the Bible is not much less simplistic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Agreeing that such descriptions of God
encompass the entirety of God is to buy into the straw man fallacy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All the arguments by atheists I’ve ever seen
set up a straw man God, and then proceed to demolish it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if the straw man isn’t an accurate
depiction of God, then demolishing it proves nothing. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Virtually
everyone trying to gain knowledge by using science, however, believes that such
a thing as Truth exists.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why else would
one want to do science?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We do science
because we believe it’s a method – not necessarily the only method, but a
useful one – to get closer to the Truth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">And what is
Truth?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s hard, perhaps impossible to
define.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But when something has the ring
of truth, we tend to hear it. Indeed, new
knowledge tends to undermine old notions of what is true.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But new knowledge doesn’t undermine the
notion that there is a true nature of things that can eventually be
learned.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To believe that Truth exists is
to believe there’s a basic, fundamental essence, a pattern that permeates
reality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is that any different from
believing that God exists?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t think
so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">What about
that pattern?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think we catch ever clearer
glimpses of it the deeper we look at the universe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The methodical methods of science extend our
senses, sharpen our observations, and permit those deeper looks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But sometimes an abrupt, fresh look at
something provides a deeper look too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The other day, on a beach by the Gulf of Mexico, I found a sand dollar
shell.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It stood out from the many living
sand dollars lightly buried in the sand by the surf.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That shell is pictured above.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>See the intricate design on the shell.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Evolution is a fact, and Darwin's theory explains well how it works. But the presence of that pattern on the shell is a puzzle. </span>It’s hard to see how the evolution
of that pattern would have helped sand dollars survive, since, as far as we can
tell, they can’t see the pattern on their shells or those of other sand
dollars.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The pattern probably has
something to do with the flow of energy, the structure of molecules, the
fractal patterns of the universe, the music of the spheres.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">It looks to me like there's more going on than just natural selection. There must be additional processes operating that leave traces in patterns we can sometimes see.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And who knows to what lengths, depths, and
dimensions these patterns extend?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’m
not ready to throw out the idea that a fervent wish, a prayer if you like,
might not reverberate with, influence, or be influenced by larger
patterns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nor am I ready to dismiss the
possibility that some aspect of the pattern that I call my life might be larger
in temporal scope than the pattern I call my body.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is there life after death?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s impossible to answer that question
without defining life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And here we have
the straw man problem again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">It would be refreshing
if scientists stopped indulging in religion-bashing by setting up straw men and
demolishing them, and if religious people stopped feeling threatened by science.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Instead of adversaries, r</span>eligion, which seeks to bring us closer
to God, and science, which seeks to bring us closer to Truth, may be long-lost,
estranged, but fundamentally related twins. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-91356433056752629982014-12-19T18:41:00.001-08:002019-09-01T08:25:32.474-07:00GDP and the cost of fuel<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix36sdFfgXH7H0DsvDXNTygPhx5YX85MaNr_yHA5NHW0q_WOUKuMmhY7dPmpNJ92Pf2H2gqyWt8pD0_sBe-jqvB46AVopuxmNXKoe5G7_-XTI_HE5x968GAZjbW4dpyoMl71uDNwDJXNE/s1600/Year-over-year+percent+change+in+real+GDP+and+percent+GDP+spent+on+fuel.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix36sdFfgXH7H0DsvDXNTygPhx5YX85MaNr_yHA5NHW0q_WOUKuMmhY7dPmpNJ92Pf2H2gqyWt8pD0_sBe-jqvB46AVopuxmNXKoe5G7_-XTI_HE5x968GAZjbW4dpyoMl71uDNwDJXNE/s1600/Year-over-year+percent+change+in+real+GDP+and+percent+GDP+spent+on+fuel.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: small;"><strong>Year-over-year percent change in real GDP</strong></span></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; line-height: 115%;"><strong> and percent
GDP spent on fuel</strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><strong></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b>NOTE: I posted the article below on 12/19/14. Since then, no new information I'm aware of has come along that argues that the relationship between cost of energy and economic health isn't as strong as Charles Hall and I argued in the article to which I refer in the article below. What has changed since 2014 is that the new technology of hydraulic fracturing has made possible a huge increase in the production of both oil and gas in the U.S., which has led to significant price declines in these energy sources. The U.S. economy, and to a lesser degree other economies in the world, have almost certainly benefited hugely. How long relatively cheap fossil fuel will remain in good supply is an open question. </b></span><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">And, as I've argued in other posts, emissions of carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels risk driving the Earth into a new regime that is likely to be inhospitable to human civilization and could have even worse impacts. Putting a steadily-increasing price on carbon would do much to shift the world's economies away from reliance on fossil fuels and toward low- and zero-carbon sources including solar, wind, and nuclear. To the extent that a price on carbon is revenue-neutral - for example by being funneled back into the economy via a rebate to households - and to the extent that renewables and next-generation nuclear prove to be cost-competitive with fossil fuels, this price on carbon and the resultant increase in the cost of fossil fuels may not significantly harm the world's economies. Given the increasingly clear evidence that emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases pose an existential threat, there seems little choice but to do what's necessary to curtail the combustion of fossil fuels. </span></span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: small;">
</span>I’m happy to report that an article I had the honor to
co-write with Charles Hall has recently been published.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s titled “Does a Change in Price of Fuel
Affect GDP Growth? An Examination of the U.S. Data from 1950–2013.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s an open source document, available at <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/7/10/6558"><span style="color: blue;">http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/7/10/6558</span></a>
<o:p></o:p><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: small;">
</span><br />
We gathered U.S. data on fuel consumption and costs for 1950
through 2013.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We then compared the percent
of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) spent each year on fuels, including fossil
fuels and nuclear ore, and the year-over-year change in GDP. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As shown in the chart above, we found that
these variables are inversely correlated. (In the chart, "per." represents "period." The periods are years; </span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">"5 per. Mov. Avg." is a 5-year moving average.) Since 1970, the 5-year moving averages of the percent of GDP spent on fuel and the year-over-year change in GDP are close to mirror images of each other. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">This correlation argues that the availability and
cost of energy is a significant determinant of economic performance. Further,
we found that a threshold exists in the vicinity of 4%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the percent of GDP spent on fuels is
greater than this, poorer economic performance appears likely; if the cost of
fuels to the economy is less than 4% of GDP, the economy seems to do well. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: small;">
</span><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">An implication of our study is that the cost of fuels has a
major impact on the economy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Others have
made this point as well, but it is frequently argued by economists that
because energy costs are small compared to other expenditures that make up GDP
(e.g., consumer spending, which makes up about 70%), that energy costs are
unlikely to be significant. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But energy appears
to be different.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It exerts a multiplier
effect. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the price of energy goes up,
almost everything costs more, and these costs propagate through the economy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nitrogen fertilizer may be a useful analogy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Adding 50 kg of nitrogen per hectare can
change the yield of corn by several tons per hectare, a multiplier effect of 50
or more. This is because nitrogen is typically a limiting nutrient.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It may be that energy is the limiting
nutrient of the economy.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: small;">
</span>Recently, with the dramatic drop in the price of crude oil,
the overall percent of GDP spent on fuels has declined significantly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is very likely now below the 4% threshold we
identified.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And not surprisingly, the economy seems to be rebounding
from the recession that began when oil prices spiked in 2008.<o:p></o:p><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: small;">
</span>
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">Will better economic conditions continue?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our study argues that it depends in no small
degree on whether energy prices remain relatively low.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And this in turn depends on whether the
recent, surprising, boom in unconventional oil (and gas) production continues, on
whether renewable sources (PV and wind) truly have what it takes to grow to be
major energy suppliers, and on whether next-generation nuclear power gains
acceptance. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p>The view that energy costs are key leads to a prediction that I don't think many economists would make: This prediction is that, as long as the price of crude oil stays in its current range (i.e., around $50 per barrel), the economies of the EU and of Japan will improve, no matter what fiscal policy (e.g., stimulus or austerity) they pursue. </o:p></span></div>
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</span></span>Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-33641273583516727092014-06-26T13:50:00.002-07:002019-09-01T08:36:46.660-07:00Revenue-neutral Carbon Tax Gaining Support<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm6uRee2ZA-dKZo5EQ8lXWZrLtMLJaMKZnWqF0vEg25-x2Cye068BODa7rLhgfRR9fn7TIjOz-yxo8c5-3cZm5_6qpGy2YxE_MA4FLU8VW0CYpmnNTrppt0_bIt3wF7tozyT5l4-B49pY/s1600/CCL+2014+Capitol.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm6uRee2ZA-dKZo5EQ8lXWZrLtMLJaMKZnWqF0vEg25-x2Cye068BODa7rLhgfRR9fn7TIjOz-yxo8c5-3cZm5_6qpGy2YxE_MA4FLU8VW0CYpmnNTrppt0_bIt3wF7tozyT5l4-B49pY/s1600/CCL+2014+Capitol.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>NOTE: I posted the article below in July of 2014. Since then, the idea that a price must be put on carbon pollution has gained considerable support. There are now seven bills before the 116th U.S. Congress that would put a price on carbon. The best in my view is H.R. 763, the Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act. Others include the Stemming Warming, Augmenting Pay Act, H.R. 4058; the Raise Wages Cut Carbon Act, H.R. 3966; the Climate Action Rebate Act, S. 2284 & H.R. 4051; the America Wins Act, H.R. 4142; the American Opportunity Carbon Fee Act, S. 1128, and the Healthy Climate and Family Security Act, S. 940 & H.R. 1960. As of this writing, September, 2019, the idea is clearly well beyond the talking stage. It seems inevitable to me that eventually this great country will wake up to the need to limit the emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and will enact legislation that will do that. Those members of Congress who have proposed or co-sponsored the bills listed above are leading the way. </b><br />
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">In late June, 2014, with over 600 other members of the Citizens’
Climate Lobby (CCL),<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was in DC to
lobby Congress to support a steadily increasing revenue-neutral carbon
tax.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We met with over 500 Congressional
offices.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">A revenue-neutral carbon tax <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">meshes with both liberal and conservative agendas. For an example of recent Republican support, see <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/opinion/sunday/lessons-for-climate-change-in-the-2008-recession.html?_r=0">http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/opinion/sunday/lessons-for-climate-change-in-the-2008-recession.html?_r=0</a> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span><o:p>CCL just released a report of a major study that explains why the concept is gaining traction; it can drastically cut carbon dioxide emissions without harming the economy. For more, see <a href="http://citizensclimatelobby.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/REMI-carbon-tax-report-62141.pdf">http://citizensclimatelobby.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/REMI-carbon-tax-report-62141.pdf</a> </o:p></span>Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-64871681422608553592014-05-28T18:11:00.000-07:002014-05-28T18:11:08.026-07:00Climate Change: Seeing Through the Nonsense; Getting Beyond the HopelessnessI gave a talk the other night on climate change and what we can do to keep it from being worse. The talk started with this picture, because on earth, it's mostly about the ocean. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijVoaTdbbOB090qMyW2PTMn4v39W_wLTslLeBc-NXQqOzHJbU5lKUOMuz56XcYqRg-I-ok3SdDUKR_6iWaHnNqzMzdyJyKFrvnrsPx4qn2k8TM7fbekN22MT3ISGScjC5gToMjS7Q8cok/s1600/A&S_ocean_hi_res.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijVoaTdbbOB090qMyW2PTMn4v39W_wLTslLeBc-NXQqOzHJbU5lKUOMuz56XcYqRg-I-ok3SdDUKR_6iWaHnNqzMzdyJyKFrvnrsPx4qn2k8TM7fbekN22MT3ISGScjC5gToMjS7Q8cok/s1600/A&S_ocean_hi_res.JPG" height="240" width="320" /></a></div>
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Here's a link to the youtube: <br />
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryrWIPMfmv0&list=UUg3AgKNtozO4ebw7Gdp3cRA"><span style="color: blue;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryrWIPMfmv0&list=UUg3AgKNtozO4ebw7Gdp3cRA</span></a></span>Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-75783845894717050312014-04-27T11:45:00.000-07:002014-04-27T11:45:36.296-07:00VMT Trend Continues Flat in the Face of High Gasoline Prices; Update<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqfdllU6E0Sh9Xu1vb6yo7y0c7DHK8sA7xJA3uGl_daVfrYdofOhrDrKtDZ-ki4_Oxbndr8FaEiJYSyoGYn9mbPukswcb1_nNxkKeISmvjYuEbQEKkN3eUAt5vH0VlliJau_IXvfkAAxs/s1600/VMT+gas+price.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqfdllU6E0Sh9Xu1vb6yo7y0c7DHK8sA7xJA3uGl_daVfrYdofOhrDrKtDZ-ki4_Oxbndr8FaEiJYSyoGYn9mbPukswcb1_nNxkKeISmvjYuEbQEKkN3eUAt5vH0VlliJau_IXvfkAAxs/s1600/VMT+gas+price.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">This is an update of a chart from two earlier posts. Although there was a slight uptick in 2013, the VMT (vehicle miles traveled) trend continues to be essentially flat. </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">From the 1930s
until recently, with a few interruptions, VMT in the U.S. grew
consistently. The inflection point in the curve appears to be around 2004, when </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">the price of gasoline
rose above $2.00 per gallon. </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">The current period of flat VMT is the longest since WW II,
when gasoline was rationed. </span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">VMT are strongly correlated with economic activity. For more on the economic aspects of the recent VMT trend, and a discussion of the likelihood that constraints on the global supply of petroleum are involved, see a recent presentation at Columbia University by energy analyst Steven <a href="http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/events-calendar/global-oil-market-forecasting-main-approaches-key-drivers">Kopits</a>. </span></span></div>
Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-72785592678121482422013-07-05T06:13:00.000-07:002013-07-07T06:22:22.915-07:00Hope for cutting carbon emissions<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxfShTyzObQsho_tiBJ5pycmV0x6h7a3Vogm6xnS2TPb8Dv3v3_U3lXUC4_jgZiyY97qKmfSlwt2QpPkMAhf4VYOvp76gOgDeq0Vc9Be8nVYx79umn7vXtPnDBDbgv79NqcF-8hlHcIVM/s1600/CCL2013-Capitol.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxfShTyzObQsho_tiBJ5pycmV0x6h7a3Vogm6xnS2TPb8Dv3v3_U3lXUC4_jgZiyY97qKmfSlwt2QpPkMAhf4VYOvp76gOgDeq0Vc9Be8nVYx79umn7vXtPnDBDbgv79NqcF-8hlHcIVM/s400/CCL2013-Capitol.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I am feeling more optimistic about the chances of slowing
and eventually halting emissions of carbon dioxide than I have for a long
time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is because of an idea and an
organization.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The idea is a
revenue-neutral carbon tax.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
organization is Citizens Climate Lobby.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">A carbon tax makes huge sense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>See my previous post, and </span><a href="http://www.carbontax.org/"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">www.carbontax.org</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> for more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Making a carbon tax revenue neutral means
many in Congress who are opposed in principle to new taxes could still vote for
it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Citizens Climate Lobby is a rapidly-growing grass-roots
organization whose goal is to promote legislation that puts a fee on carbon
based fuels and returns the revenue to households.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Lobby held its annual meeting June 23-25,
2013, in Washington DC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(See picture
above.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was privileged to attend.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the 25th and later that week, Lobby
members met with about 400 members of Congress or their staffs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In these meetings, the Lobby pushed for
legislation that would:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Tax carbon-based fuels upstream, at the first
point of sale (well, mine, or port of entry).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Start the tax at $15 per ton of fossil CO<sub><span style="font-size: x-small;">2</span></sub>
emitted, and increase it by $10 per ton per year so that it reaches at least
$100 per ton of CO<sub><span style="font-size: x-small;">2</span></sub> within ten years, making renewable energy less
expensive than fossil fuel.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Protect American households from increased
energy costs associated with the carbon tax by returning the revenue to them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Protect American businesses with border
adjustment tariffs that also encourage other nations to adopt equivalent carbon
pricing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Under this plan, a majority of households would break even
or get more money back than they paid in carbon tax, protecting the poor and
middle class.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A predictably increasing
carbon price would send a clear market signal, unleashing development of a
clean-energy economy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">For more, see </span><a href="http://www.citizensclimatelobby.org/"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">www.citizensclimatelobby.org</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-44468376413473124952013-05-26T09:42:00.000-07:002013-05-26T09:42:24.052-07:00It's Time for a Carbon Tax<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEOZQnKOghE6kxHFzk4Hs2wLHeIcdOgQiCUxEGuUb7dqnSWnvIlWs5NRj1qy43bf1vZRYMQbOw9IEjlxdw5CWTJtm05HttCQOiMoFxWddXbvYkoH4gRY1U_hNcGvw0pfBLLgv6XLX9nu8/s1600/keeling+curve.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEOZQnKOghE6kxHFzk4Hs2wLHeIcdOgQiCUxEGuUb7dqnSWnvIlWs5NRj1qy43bf1vZRYMQbOw9IEjlxdw5CWTJtm05HttCQOiMoFxWddXbvYkoH4gRY1U_hNcGvw0pfBLLgv6XLX9nu8/s400/keeling+curve.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">A tax on the carbon content of fossil fuels has gained
little traction so far. Few politicians have been courageous enough to propose
or seriously work for implementing such a tax. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But support for a carbon tax is growing, and
is coming from across the political spectrum. (1)(2)(3) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There
are three obvious reasons: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">First, it’s now incontrovertible that climate change is
real, is driven by human emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon
dioxide, and is potentially disastrous for the environment and the future of
civilization.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Second, none of the efforts so far to limit the buildup of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere have worked.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yes,
there have been gradual improvements in energy efficiency and carbon intensity
of industry, and there has been a recent lowering of carbon emissions in the
U.S. (4) But humanity continues to dump carbon dioxide freely into the
atmosphere, and the levels are building (see chart). <o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Third, of the various methods under consideration to cut
back these emissions, a carbon tax is the simplest, fairest, and most
direct.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some of the reasons why this is
so are listed below: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Much of this
material has been adapted from essays available from the Carbon Tax Center (5) and
from the book, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Case for a Carbon Tax</i>,
by Shi-Ling Hsu (6).)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Some reasons why a
carbon tax is the best approach<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">1)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A carbon tax is
more economically efficient than other approaches.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Other approaches include cap-and-trade
(establishing a carbon emissions cap and emissions allowances, portions of the
total allowed emission, that can be traded), and command-and-control (limiting
carbon emissions for specific emission sources).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Each of these two would target and control
emissions from a subset of all emitting sources.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A third approach, subsidies, would target for
encouragement specific technologies or industries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Proponents
of these other approaches often seem to believe that these approaches would not
impose costs on anyone but the entities directly regulated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in the long run, it is inevitable that
virtually all of the costs of other approaches to cut carbon emissions will be
passed on to consumers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, because
the imposition of costs would be selective, the course of the passing on of the
costs could be torturous and rife with possibilities for poor investments and
corruption. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But a carbon tax, levied on all fuels based on their carbon
content, and ideally, including methane as well, (7) would affect all processes
and products that are made with the combustion of fossil fuels. It would send a
clear and uniform price signal to a vast variety of carbon dioxide-emitting
sources.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">An important aspect of economic efficiency is the avoidance
of excessive formation of capital that can become “stranded.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Excessive capital asset formation is a risk
when the government picks winners by subsidizing certain industries. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, recently, before the poor net
energy of ethanol produced from corn was widely understood, ethanol production
enjoyed large subsidies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A number of
ethanol production plants were built that today appear likely to have a poor
economic future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If these plants become
of little value, they will be stranded assets; capital that is lost to the
economic system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because it would send a direct and immediate price
signal to all users of fossil fuels, a carbon tax is less likely than other
approaches to lead to stranded assets.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">2) A carbon tax would not interfere with other regulatory
instruments or jurisdictions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Besides
the other major types of carbon control that have been tried, as discussed
above, additional methods of cutting carbon emissions and developing renewable
sources of energy are likely to be developed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>A carbon tax could co-exist with these other approaches without causing
conflicts or confusions. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">3) A carbon tax would be relatively easy to administer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Levying a tax is something that governments have
traditionally done.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Administrative
agencies are already in place that collect taxes on fuels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fuel taxes could be adapted to a broader tax
on the carbon content of fuels, and should include a tax, weighted by global
warming potential, on direct releases of unburned fuel (e.g. methane leaks, oil
spills) to the environment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Implementing
a carbon tax would essentially require only the setting of tax levels and
establishment of a phase-in schedule.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">4) A carbon tax will encourage innovation across all sectors
of the economy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As discussed above, a
carbon tax will send a steady and predictable price signal to all users of
fossil fuels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every user will have an
incentive to cut carbon emissions by becoming more efficient in use of these
fuels. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The power of the market to
stimulate innovation will apply not just to a few large regulated entities,
such as would be the case with a cap-and-trade program and with a
command-and-control system, but to all users of fossil fuels. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">5) A carbon tax appears more amenable to international
coordination than other pricing mechanisms.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>So far, efforts at such coordination have been stymied by opposing
positions of important nations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For
example, China and India have balked at the idea of establishing a cap on
carbon emissions that would apply to them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But, there seems no reason why they might not impose carbon taxes of
their own.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Another aspect of
international coordination that could be problematic is the incentive to nations
without carbon pricing to become “free riders.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If, for example, goods manufactured in the
U.S. rise in cost because fuel costs increase due to a carbon tax (or other
carbon pricing mechanism), goods produced in countries that do not have such a
tax could enjoy a competitive advantage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, such inequalities could be adjusted with border tax
adjustments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Although legal thinking is
still evolving on the issue, it appears that such adjustments, e.g., fees
levied on imports from nations without a carbon tax, would be legal under the
rules of the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs. Also, adjustments based on
a carbon tax appear much more likely to be acceptable under World Trade
Organization than adjustments based on a cap-and-trade program.(8)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">6) A carbon tax will raise revenue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(This is also true with a cap-and-trade
program that auctions its allowances, with the important difference that
fluctuations in the prices of cap-and-trade allowances make it impossible to
predict, and count on, those revenues.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This revenue could be used to offset other taxes, such as payroll taxes,
and thus could make a carbon tax system revenue-neutral.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Much of the recent support of a carbon tax
has focused on a revenue-neutral approach.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Given the palpable need for reform of the current tax code, a carbon tax
could be the centerpiece of a new approach to taxation that would have many
advantages over the current system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If
revenue neutrality was not insisted upon, some of the revenues of a carbon tax
could be used for other purposes, such as reducing budget deficits, subsidizing
research and development of low-carbon and renewable energy sources, and
developing capabilities to adapt to climate change. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">What about the cost
of a carbon tax? <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Despite the arguments of proponents of cap-and-trade,
command-and control, and subsidy programs that these approaches would affect
only the regulated, or supported, entities, it is certain that virtually all of
the costs would eventually be passed on to consumers in some form, such as in
higher electricity rates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Subsidy
programs are not immune; the money spent has to come from somewhere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But, especially at the outset, costs of
these other approaches are not as apparent, and can be hidden or disguised
enough to make them seem innocuous.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
carbon tax, however, is up front and unmistakable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yes, it is a cost.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yes, it will raise the price of gas, of
heating oil, of food, of products and processes that are made with or otherwise
involved with the combustion of fossil fuels, which includes just about
everything in the 21<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">st</span></sup> century industrialized world. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Yet this apparent weakness of a carbon tax is its
fundamental strength. A carbon tax will put a price on carbon that is readily
apparent and will propagate to every corner of the fossil fuel-using system. Unfortunately,
the directness of a carbon tax plays into the naiveté and reactive aspects of
human nature, and often stimulates knee-jerk negative reactions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, carbon taxes are typically and
summarily branded as “regressive.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
fact any tax on consumption of essentials is capable of being regressive,
because people with lesser incomes usually spend comparatively more of their
money on essentials than the wealthy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Payroll taxes, for example, are regressive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Property taxes and sales taxes are
regressive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The regressive aspect of
sales taxes is ameliorated to a degree by the exemptions of food and
clothing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is by no means clear that a
carbon tax would be more regressive than other ways of controlling carbon
emissions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And, there are many ways of
minimizing the effects of a carbon tax on those least able to pay for it, for
example, by a flat distribution of pro-rata shares of the revenue to every
taxpayer (9).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">It must be stressed that the cost of a carbon tax is a cost
on a pollutant that is already on its way to imposing a huge cost on all of
humanity: the cost of potentially catastrophic climate change that cannot be
remediated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The costs of a carbon tax
can be avoided by conserving fuel use and by developing ways to produce energy
without using fossil fuels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A carbon
tax, more so than other approaches of controlling carbon emissions because of
its directness and broadness, can unleash the innovative forces of the
market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And, to the extent that the
costs of a carbon tax are avoided, the threat of irreversible climate change
will be pushed back and possibly eliminated. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">When enough of us awaken to the real and present danger of
climate change, and to the need to put a price on carbon emissions, we will
realize that a carbon tax is the answer. There are signs that this is starting
to happen. Some countries and jurisdictions already have a carbon tax,
including Sweden, Australia, and British Columbia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Several carbon tax bills have recently been
introduced in the U.S. Congress. (10) <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">References </b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">1) See </span><a href="http://energyandenterprise.com/"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://energyandenterprise.com/</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">2) Shultz, George, and Gary Becker, 2013, Why We Support a
Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax, Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2013 (on line), April
8, p. A19 (print); </span><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323611604578396401965799658.html"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323611604578396401965799658.html</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">3) Gore, Al, 2013, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Future: Six Drivers of Global Change</i>, Random House, New York<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">4) Some of this is because many coal-burning power plants
have shifted to natural gas, which releases less carbon to produce a given
amount of energy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The sluggish economy
and higher prices for gasoline, which have limited driving somewhat, have also
played a role.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">5) See </span><a href="http://www.carbontax.org/"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://www.carbontax.org/</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">6) Hsu, Shi-Ling, 2011, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Case for a Carbon Tax</i>, Island Press, Washington, DC<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">7) Methane, the main ingredient of natural gas, is a potent
greenhouse gas, with a global warming potential (GWP) 25 times greater than
carbon dioxide when looked at over a 100-year time frame, and a higher GWP on
shorter time scales.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Estimates of the
percentage of natural gas that leaks during extraction and distribution
activities vary widely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If leaks are
sufficiently high, natural gas has no advantage over coal in terms of
greenhouse gas emissions, and could even be worse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>See </span><a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/limiting-methane-leaks-critical-to-gas-climate-benefits-16020"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://www.climatecentral.org/news/limiting-methane-leaks-critical-to-gas-climate-benefits-16020</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">8) Hsu, Shi-Ling, 2011, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Case for a Carbon Tax</i>, Island Press, Washington, DC<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">9) Hansen, James, 2012, Storms of My Grandchildren’s Opa, </span><a href="http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20121213_StormsOfOpa.pdf"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20121213_StormsOfOpa.pdf</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">10) See </span><a href="http://www.carbontax.org/progress/carbon-tax-bills/"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://www.carbontax.org/progress/carbon-tax-bills/</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Thanks to Charles Komanoff of the Carbon Tax Center for
helpful comments<o:p></o:p></span></div>
Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-50648766451622742192013-05-13T08:13:00.001-07:002013-05-13T08:16:24.880-07:00Marcellus Shale Gas: Cumulative Production Trends<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh22k5rEoiAbFK8Mt6WyCcFyOHBTztJtzm4EI5Efzes6eId7U66QQw6x7ZMBBW-sCRSmQ-_IM1mMRMzAvjguop1lzAIEMHZrmEqd_KgCF0nYt2Tck5OQPC8cTn_MNq0Jej3WD9u2XApeAw/s1600/Marcellus+shale+gas+average+cumulative+production+per+well.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh22k5rEoiAbFK8Mt6WyCcFyOHBTztJtzm4EI5Efzes6eId7U66QQw6x7ZMBBW-sCRSmQ-_IM1mMRMzAvjguop1lzAIEMHZrmEqd_KgCF0nYt2Tck5OQPC8cTn_MNq0Jej3WD9u2XApeAw/s400/Marcellus+shale+gas+average+cumulative+production+per+well.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Data on the production of gas from wells in Pennsylvania are
available from Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection. (1)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I have just completed a preliminary analysis
of some of these data, on horizontal wells in the Marcellus shale region of the
state.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well production data were separated
into six groups.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The groups represent
wells that started production in each of six different periods; the one-year
period from July 2009 through June 2010, and the six-month periods from July
2010 through December 2010, January 2011 through June 2011, July 2011 through
December 2011, January 2012 through June 2012, and July 2012 through December
2012.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Cumulative production records were
developed for each well, and the average cumulative production curve for each
of the six groups was determined.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
data are pictured in the chart above.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Several things are clear from these data:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">a. Although projection into the future of non-linear trends
such as these is uncertain, if the trend of production per well continues in a
consistent manner, average production per well is on track to equal at least 3
billion cubic feet (Bcf) over a 30-year period.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>b. Production appears
higher from wells that began production after the first period pictured, which
ended in June, 2010.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wells that show
production for 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 periods show higher production than the first
group, which has production data for 6 periods.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Perhaps this is due to increasing efficiency on the part of the gas
companies, or to more recent wells being concentrated in better producing
areas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">c. Although not apparent from the chart, there is much
variation among the wells.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example,
in the group that began production between July, 2010 and December, 2010, the
90<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup> percentile total production, as of the end of 2012, was 4.25
Bcf, while the production total at the 10<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup> percentile was only 0.62
Bcf. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">d. Also not apparent from the chart, but clear from a closer
look at the data, is that some companies’ wells are significantly more
productive than the wells of other companies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This could reflect greater expertise on the part of these companies,
either in selection of drilling sites or in drilling and hydrofracturing methods,
or both. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Are there implications of these data?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In my view, there are at least two
conclusions that can be drawn:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">1. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Actual production
trends are consistent with predictions of significant long-term production of
natural gas from shale formations. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">2. Over the long term, increased production of natural gas
could result in continuing increases of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in
the atmosphere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Especially problematic
could be leaks of raw natural gas, a potent GHG. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">It is becoming clear that emissions of GHGs could result in
potentially catastrophic climate change that cannot be remediated within a human time
scale. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the face of robust future
production of natural gas, arguments for a carbon tax are looking better and
better.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bipartisan support for such a
tax seems to be gaining momentum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Former
secretary of state George Shultz and Nobel laureate economist Gary Becker make
a strong case for a carbon tax in an editorial that appeared in the Wall Street
Journal last month. (2) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They argue that a
revenue-neutral carbon tax would benefit all Americans by eliminating the need
for costly energy subsidies while promoting a level playing field for energy
producers.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I plan to discuss carbon taxes in more detail in future blogs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">References<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">(1) </span><a href="https://www.paoilandgasreporting.state.pa.us/publicreports/Modules/Welcome/Agreement.aspx"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">https://www.paoilandgasreporting.state.pa.us/publicreports/Modules/Welcome/Agreement.aspx</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">(2) Shultz, George, and Gary Becker, 2013, Why We Support a
Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax, Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2013 (on line), April
8, p. A19 (print); </span><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323611604578396401965799658.html"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323611604578396401965799658.html</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-50822563619347183692013-05-10T06:21:00.000-07:002013-05-11T04:12:04.905-07:00Shale Gas EROI: Update<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYDBndCZYlbY7cOJIs7TNcbqED_ICDDi0LJ_943bvaMB4_s50pU9h3QhX-wYAZvkU3KjW46h9qwB_Wsd1K2_MgMkX5q7qNeoRhyphenhyphenM2YjOJvI2HmhJwztLJG_wHsKli9uqUp7CuIMwlgSOs/s1600/compression+station.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYDBndCZYlbY7cOJIs7TNcbqED_ICDDi0LJ_943bvaMB4_s50pU9h3QhX-wYAZvkU3KjW46h9qwB_Wsd1K2_MgMkX5q7qNeoRhyphenhyphenM2YjOJvI2HmhJwztLJG_wHsKli9uqUp7CuIMwlgSOs/s400/compression+station.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">A while ago I posted “Shale Gas EROI: Preliminary Estimate
Suggests 70 or Greater.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am happy to
report that this analysis has been expanded, updated, and subjected to a
rigorous scientific peer review.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is
now in the form of an article that I wrote with the help of a colleague, Jackie
Melillo, which is now in press (1). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The expanded analysis focuses on the Marcellus shale, and
estimates that the EROI of horizontal gas wells in this region is in the range
of 64:1 to 112:1, with a mean estimate of 85:1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The EROI value is sensitive to a number of variables.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The most important of these is the total
production of gas from a well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In our
analysis, Jackie and I estimated that a typical horizontal gas well in the
Marcellus shale region will produce 3 billion cubic feet of natural gas over its
lifetime.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Recent actual production data suggests
that Marcellus wells are on track to produce at least this much.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These data will be discussed in a piece I
will post shortly. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">An EROI in the range of 85:1 for natural gas is surprising
in light of other studies that indicate a much lower EROI.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, a recent article (2) depicts the
EROI for electricity produced from combustion of natural gas as 7:1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">How could EROI values for natural gas differ so much?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Although all EROI studies attempt to
determine the ratio of the energy output (numerator) to the energy input
(denominator), a key difference exists between natural gas and other fuels. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Approximately 8 percent of natural gas is
burned, mostly at large regional compression stations (such as the one pictured),
to provide the energy to process and compress the gas in order to get it to
market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How this “self-use” quantity is
counted makes a big difference in the EROI calculation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Two EROI calculation methods have been used with
natural gas, the net energy ratio (NER) and the net external energy ratio (NEER).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The NER has as its numerator the net output
of refined energy to society, and as its denominator the sum of all energy
consumed in the energy production and refining process.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In contrast, the NEER’s denominator includes
only those inputs that are consumed from the existing industrial energy system,
and excludes self-use (i.e., natural gas used to process and compress the
remainder of gas).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">If the NER approach is used with natural gas, the 8 percent
that represents self-use is included in the denominator, and so the EROI can
never be higher than about 12:1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the
other hand, using the NEER approach, the self-use quantity is subtracted from
the numerator, and only the energy actually consumed that could have been used
elsewhere in society, such as diesel fuel and electricity, is included in the
denominator.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For natural gas, with its
large self-use component, the NEER approach leads to a higher estimate of the
EROI.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The NER may be a more comprehensive measure of the total
energy return from a production pathway, and likely correlates closely with
environmental impacts, such as greenhouse emissions, of a pathway.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Conversely, the NEER is a more useful measure
of the contribution of an energy source to the energy supply of society because
it counts only the inputs that must be produced and delivered externally
through the existing energy supply system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In my preliminary study, and in the article that will soon be published,
the NEER approach is used.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">References:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">(1) Aucott, Michael and Jacqueline Melillo, 2013, A
Preliminary Energy Return on Investment Analysis of Natural Gas from the
Marcellus Shale, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Journal of Industrial
Ecology</i>, in press.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">(2) Inman, Mason, 2013, The True Cost of Fossil Fuels, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Scientific American</i>, April, 2013, Vol.
308, No. 4, pp. 58-61.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-12004748701938871592013-03-06T11:05:00.003-08:002013-03-06T11:06:18.139-08:00Fuel Cost as Percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Update<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBsbjZBp_AYF8TX0tlaonBchjTUa3kFQC4JPIaYi2XhwRFmH8LC-dU6nNKbGZmh-duOYGe-yS9HG4KoitleHsTuy1uht2tNW_XaBLODSaYxs9p9hkDE9nSDyEfImY7DLh5Ymi-mOnpC54/s1600/E_use_GDP_3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBsbjZBp_AYF8TX0tlaonBchjTUa3kFQC4JPIaYi2XhwRFmH8LC-dU6nNKbGZmh-duOYGe-yS9HG4KoitleHsTuy1uht2tNW_XaBLODSaYxs9p9hkDE9nSDyEfImY7DLh5Ymi-mOnpC54/s400/E_use_GDP_3.png" width="400" /></a></div>
This is an update of the a chart presented in several earlier posts. It is clear that the U.S. economy still faces the drag of significant energy cost, which represents over five percent of GDP. In earlier periods of prosperity, fuel cost was consistently below four percent. It is likely that this continued high cost has a lot to do with the current economic doldrums; money spent for energy cannot be spent on other things. The energy cost would be noticeably higher were it not for the dramatic decline in the cost of natural gas, due in large part to the burst of production from the shale plays. In 2012, coal consumption(1) was down significantly, while gas consumption was up. If there's a "war on coal," natural gas is leading the charge. Natural gas is not a ready substitute for liquid fuels based on petroleum however, and this cost remains by far the biggest portion.(2) <br />
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Notes<br />
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(1) Coal price data for 2012 is not yet available from EIA; it is assumed the same in 2012 as in 2011<br />
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(2) The oil price for 2011 and 2012 is the Brent price, not the West Texas Intermediate price. The cost of these two benchmark crudes, virtually identical from the 80s through 2010, diverged in 2011, with Brent consistently higher. Brent essentially represents the cost paid by most U.S. refiners; the price trend of gasoline, for example, closely tracks the price of Brent. Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-53115590620233676562013-03-02T18:10:00.001-08:002013-05-06T14:45:53.410-07:00VMT and Gasoline Price Trend Update<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-GhF19vz_4wibguvuvRcInsYAxIxy7yTNcc8PBEzYEghtHN-z5Et4nQ8xOeysplIYNHsscRdsTSl8V7RHb-Mxb2lj8vgCZEQEXZd0CFALsbcq7k7PiMMLZHt3iLaTXUumWD47dHbKg3c/s1600/VMT+price+gasoline.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-GhF19vz_4wibguvuvRcInsYAxIxy7yTNcc8PBEzYEghtHN-z5Et4nQ8xOeysplIYNHsscRdsTSl8V7RHb-Mxb2lj8vgCZEQEXZd0CFALsbcq7k7PiMMLZHt3iLaTXUumWD47dHbKg3c/s400/VMT+price+gasoline.png" width="400" /></a></div>
This is an update of earlier data presented in my May 17, 2011 post. Although there are fluctuations, it looks as if the flat, probably slowly decreasing, VMT trend continues. It's hard to see how this could not be related to the historically high price of gasoline.<br />
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Will this flat or declining VMT trend continue? It likely depends to a large degree on the price of gasoline, which in turn depends on the price of crude oil. Currently, U.S. oil production is surging because of the horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing that is unlocking tight oil from shales such as those in North Dakota and southwestern Texas. Will U.S. production grow enough to offset flat or declining oil production in the rest of the world? Time will tell. And perhaps some of us are finding ways to function well without so much driving, so the flat or declining VMT trend will continue regardless of the price of fuel.<br />
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A related issue is the Keystone XL pipeline. Some argue it should be approved because it will lead to lower gasoline prices. But, gasoline prices are linked to the world price of crude oil. The XL pipeline would allow the current moderate surfeit of crude oil that exists in the central U.S. to reach the world market. Unless the growing quantity of crude oil now being produced in the U.S., augmented by (carbon-intensive!) oil from the Canadian tar sands proves to be enough to lower world oil prices, the XL pipeline is unlikely to lower the price of crude or gasoline to U.S. consumers. It could lead to higher prices because with the pipeline in place the oil land-locked in the central U.S. could be sold for the higher world price.<br />
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Could it be that the high price of gasoline will gradually make driving less important in our way of life? Could we become increasingly efficient in moving goods, information, and ourselves in ways that don't require so many vehicle miles traveled? Perhaps, at least to a slight degree, this is already starting to happen, and some carbon can stay in the ground. Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-86031075603252701792013-02-08T16:57:00.001-08:002013-02-09T06:48:23.856-08:00The hope of trees, cont'd; Ginkgo biloba<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiRDSha5n7r-aEt6OF7CC6tbeUm-CIxPzCie6ZvnRvx30s_5mpeh1xbIkayyzQ96VOAOc8VwNuzxG-YK5onFn0DB_9Zapyw1CaMi5tkisq2Z8MB78x-504RKepf9bfpQK5ozoatHRIquA/s1600/Ginkgo+seeds.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiRDSha5n7r-aEt6OF7CC6tbeUm-CIxPzCie6ZvnRvx30s_5mpeh1xbIkayyzQ96VOAOc8VwNuzxG-YK5onFn0DB_9Zapyw1CaMi5tkisq2Z8MB78x-504RKepf9bfpQK5ozoatHRIquA/s400/Ginkgo+seeds.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Several years ago, driving to work on cold days, the tips of
several of my fingers started turning waxy and bloodless.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This went away when they warmed up, but it
was irritating and painful. These were the same fingers that, long ago,
suffered painfully from exposure to cold as I rode around on my motor
scooter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It turned out I was
suffering from Raynaud's disease, which is a spasm of the blood vessels causing
loss of circulation to the affected parts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I looked online and found there was an herbal remedy reported to work; extract
of <em>Ginkgo biloba</em> leaves. (1,2) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I got
some and started taking two 500 mg capsules of the powdered leaves daily. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Unlike all herbal remedies I’ve ever tried, this actually
worked.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Raynaud’s phenomenon went
away entirely, and has not returned. Ginkgo is purportedly good for the memory
as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It stands to reason; anything that is good for
your peripheral circulation should be good for your whole body.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Ginkgo now seems like a friend to me, an important fellow traveler
on this planet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Apparently others have
felt this way, for ages.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ginkgo has long been cultivated in China; some planted trees at
temples are believed to be over 1,500 years old. The tree is important in
Buddhism and Confucianism, and is widely planted in Korea and parts of Japan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s also widely planted in North America and Europe, in
part because it tolerates urban conditions so well. (3) The wonderful author Rutherford
Platt, noting that Ginkgo is closely related to trees that lived 280 million years ago, wrote, “Ginkgo should be as exciting as a crocodile on a big city street…
its leaves are fern leaves, from the age of reptiles… There is no other tree
like it, delivered.. from the age of dinosaurs into the heart of our teeming
cities…somehow a tree evolved in a bygone age can take our ruthless cities,
creating trunk, leaf and fruit from miserable dirt below the scorching
pavements.” (4) <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">My sister-in-law Carol spotted some Ginkgos growing near
where she works, and they were old enough to be bearing fruit (which doesn’t
happen until they are 30 years old).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She
kindly gathered a whole pile of fruits this fall, and I squeezed the seeds out
of the malodorous pulp.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The seeds
(pictured) are now being stratified, mixed with moist peat moss in the bottom of the refrigerator,
getting happy for spring planting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They’ll go into the ground in April, and more Ginkgo trees should be on
the way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.</span><span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12710841"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12710841</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
accessed 2/8/13 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.</span><span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><a href="http://www.livestrong.com/article/330576-ginkgo-biloba-for-raynauds-disease/"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://www.livestrong.com/article/330576-ginkgo-biloba-for-raynauds-disease/</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
accessed 2/8/13<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">3.</span><span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ginkgo_biloba"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ginkgo_biloba</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
accessed 2/8/13<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">4.</span><span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Platt, Rutherford, 1952, 1968, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Discover American Trees</i>, Dodd, Mead
& Co., NY<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-12080135666122853152012-12-29T11:07:00.000-08:002012-12-29T11:07:18.579-08:00We Must See Through the NRA and Act on Guns
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">It’s recently become abundantly clear that the U.S. has a
major problem with guns in the hands of crazy people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No other industrialized nation has anything
like the rate of gun-caused deaths as we do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It’s not likely that the U.S. has a significantly higher proportion of crazy
people than other nations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But we do
have more guns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The National Rifle Association has to take some credit for
this. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have successfully lobbied
Congress for decades to resist even moderate restrictions on gun
ownership.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some of the NRA’s recent
positions seem crazy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The NRA opposes background
checks on all gun sales, opposes having to notify police when guns are lost or
stolen, and supports gun ownership for people on terrorism watch lists; 75%, 64%,
and 71%, respectively, of NRA members disagree with these positions. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And, while the NRA has been lobbying for
national legislation making concealed handguns legal everywhere, most NRA
members believe that states should make their own laws for concealed handguns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(For background and details on this
information see </span><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/kapil-khatter/nra-gun-control_b_2372471.html"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/kapil-khatter/nra-gun-control_b_2372471.html</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Why would the NRA be more extreme than its own members?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A likely reason is that the NRA is not really
a gun owners’ lobby as much as it is a gun manufacturers’ lobby.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s become
a trade organization, with large annual contributions from gun manufacturers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And, like most trade organizations, it can be
counted on to push for whatever will make its corporate members more
profitable, anything that will help them sell more guns. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Congress has faced pressures from entrenched manufacturers
before.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It faced such from the auto
industry when it became clear, in the 1960s, that cars were causing air
pollution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It faced pressure from the chemical
industry when it became clear that DDT and other chlorinated pesticides were
wiping out predator birds and when it was proved that CFCs were depleting
stratospheric ozone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It faced pressure
from the lead industry when it became clear that lead in paint was damaging children’s
health.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Congress rose above these
pressures and enacted measures that controlled these problems.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">This coming year, may Congress to take a hard
look at the acute problem that virtually unbridled gun ownership has created in
this country, see beyond the arguments of the NRA, cloaked in the guise
of personal freedom and safety, for more sales and profits for the gun industry, and enact legislation that will lead to a major reduction in gun-related deaths. </span></div>
Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-43234229708212551842012-03-01T17:37:00.004-08:002012-03-02T17:24:10.262-08:00Fuel Cost as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Update<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZJUDSRVRK1uwynOrFj312HDgUas4Q3PRJt0JE8Zbc-EEw8dHAjQOdFEKkv1WxGI7cjrcoavxrhp9H9O0AuF6pa2QynediZcppcfbBxXF4qsOtIWSiLIq-jx6oyh__Ax8xkPd75K4J9dA/s1600/E_use_GDP_3.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; width: 400px; height: 300px; float: left; cursor: pointer;" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5715110522247415794" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZJUDSRVRK1uwynOrFj312HDgUas4Q3PRJt0JE8Zbc-EEw8dHAjQOdFEKkv1WxGI7cjrcoavxrhp9H9O0AuF6pa2QynediZcppcfbBxXF4qsOtIWSiLIq-jx6oyh__Ax8xkPd75K4J9dA/s400/E_use_GDP_3.jpg" /></a><br /><br /><br />This is an update of a chart I've posted previously showing fuel expenditures as percent of GDP. That percentage crept up again in 2011.<br /><br />The contribution of natural gas is smaller due to much lower prices; almost certainly the result of new production from the shale plays.<br /><br />Coal is still relatively cheap, although its cost has been rising steadily from $19 per ton to over $32/ton today.*<br /><br />On an energy basis, coal and natural gas are now close; coal costs about $1.70 per million Btu and natural gas is currently priced at about $2.50 per million Btu. Nuclear fuel is still so cheap compared to the fossil fuels that its contribution would not show in the chart.<br /><br />As has been the case since 2005 when its global production levelled off (see my previous post), petroleum's cost is relatively high. Now at over $100 a barrel, it costs abut $18 per million Btu. But our industrial economy is geared in ways that seem to resemble addiction to oil, and its contribution to the overall percentage of GDP spent of fuels grew in 2011.<br /><br /><br />* Data from USDOE/EIA, 2005 dollars, F.O.B. rail/barge price at point of first saleMike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-73056530342896562962012-02-03T18:01:00.000-08:002012-02-04T19:17:01.045-08:00Things Have Changed<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwmrVE7i4hwH_v6n16rxytsW1SKpysMRP80JvJDxA6n51fMDa282J-XKOG3A2khiJhjYtxD1qFo2ql5XcgfFjuy8bkogpNHuJqaxSvbZKpeB29ZaVR2NU4R3i197Eyx6LnaLuCKN3eY5Q/s1600/phase+shift.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; width: 400px; height: 300px; float: left; cursor: pointer;" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5705099427910270082" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwmrVE7i4hwH_v6n16rxytsW1SKpysMRP80JvJDxA6n51fMDa282J-XKOG3A2khiJhjYtxD1qFo2ql5XcgfFjuy8bkogpNHuJqaxSvbZKpeB29ZaVR2NU4R3i197Eyx6LnaLuCKN3eY5Q/s400/phase+shift.jpg" /></a><br />Physical things, like water, sometimes display startling and abrupt shifts in form. Apply heat to a pot of water. The water will get steadily hotter until it reaches the boiling point, and then something dramatic happens; the temperature stops rising and the water steadily turns to vapor, and disappears into the air. Something equally dramatic happens when water freezes. Subject to cold enough temperatures, water’s temperature steadily decreases, until it reaches the freezing point. Then there is no further temperature drop until the water freezes. At that point the water, now effectively transformed into the mineral, ice, continues to get colder. These sorts of shifts, or phase changes, are well known to physical scientists, but beyond the professional experience and training of most economists and social scientists.<br /><br />But there probably are phase changes in economic and social systems, and it looks like we’re in the middle of one now. The growth of cheap, concentrated energy in the form of petroleum that has underpinned economic growth for generations is gone. The continued failure of mainstream economists and politicians to grapple with understanding this is becoming unconscionable.<br /><br />Take a look at this chart, from an article that just came out (Murray, James and David King, 2012, Oil’s tipping point has passed, Nature, 481, 433-435). Oil economics changed markedly around 2004-2005 from elastic to inelastic supply. It seems highly unlikely that this change can be attributed to anything other than production of crude oil hitting a ceiling at about the same time. The idea that instead this marked change is due to some sort of political attitude shift that suddently occurred during that short period seems far-fetched.<br /><br />The abrupt shift in behavior of the oil market looks a lot like a phase change. This shift tells us that things are different now. Things are so different that all bets are off as to the future behavior of the price of oil and the systems that have been built on the ready availability of inexpensive and steadily increasing quantities of it. It seems inevitable that the vast array of systems of the industrial world that depend on this fuel, including, especially, transportation, will go through a phase change of their own, with consequences that are perhaps nearly impossible to predict. To continue the analogy with water; if you’ve spent your whole life understanding how water behaves, you may have a hard time understanding steam.<br /><br />Those in a position to help decide the future of economic and social systems have to understand that the old order has changed if they are to be able to have a chance of preventing all hell breaking loose. It seems certain that the economy cannot continue to increase its production of traditional goods and services, and the jobs that rely on these, now that the supply of cheap oil is no longer increasing. It also seems certain that we won’t be able to “grow our way out” of this recession/depression and that we’ll have to start actively looking at how a non-growing, steady state economy will function and how to get there.Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-70482508840552052782011-06-23T18:34:00.000-07:002011-06-30T04:50:16.300-07:00Shale Gas EROI: Preliminary Estimate Suggests 70 Or Greater<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuuorBt9yBvxXLzU0etZw7azxo2KTMBaMQ5BoaJ8dWKIvcT2c7PaIIQ9UiGhfvWQV23e_NVqoLUOHQW4YKa6xAZdfoBwSIBXZDIiG72PZ6ZcuPdh3vKrXY0Z5MWXuKZfs8Hy1QvghLcR0/s1600/Shale+gas+EROI.jpg"><img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 300px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5621594767908953410" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuuorBt9yBvxXLzU0etZw7azxo2KTMBaMQ5BoaJ8dWKIvcT2c7PaIIQ9UiGhfvWQV23e_NVqoLUOHQW4YKa6xAZdfoBwSIBXZDIiG72PZ6ZcuPdh3vKrXY0Z5MWXuKZfs8Hy1QvghLcR0/s400/Shale+gas+EROI.jpg" /></a> A valuable measure of a fuel’s usefulness and long-term viability is its energy return on (energy) investment (EROI). This is the ratio of the energy obtained from using that fuel to the energy invested to bring that fuel to its point of use.<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn1" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn1" name="_ednref1">[1]</a>,<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn2" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn2" name="_ednref2">[2]</a>,<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn3" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn3" name="_ednref3">[3]</a> Back in the early days of petroleum and natural gas production, when wells were shallower and readily accessible by land routes, EROIs were probably in the range of 100 – that is, a well would return 100 units of energy for each 1 unit of energy it took to drill it and bring the product to market.<br /><br />To the extent that the growth of industrial society has been supported by readily available and cheap energy (i.e., fossil fuels with high EROI), industrial economies will be increasingly stressed as easily extracted fuels are used up and replaced by fuels with lower EROI. Some analyses suggest that an EROI greater than 5 to 10 is necessary for even a limited functioning of industrial civilization and indicate that many of the newer oil wells in difficult locations, e.g. deep seas, have EROIs in the range of 10.<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn4" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn4" name="_ednref4">[4]</a><br /><br />New methods of extracting natural gas from organic-rich shales, such as the Barnett in Texas and the Marcellus in Pennsylvania and nearby regions, appear to offer promise of a large new source of natural gas. Geologist Ken Deffeyes who several years ago made what increasingly appears to be an accurate prediction that global petroleum production would peak somewhere between 2004 and 2008, regards natural gas from shale as a game-changing opportunity.<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn5" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn5" name="_ednref5">[5]</a> He considers opposition to new horizontal drilling and hydrofracking procedures as “evidence of economic suicidal tendencies.”<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn6" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn6" name="_ednref6">[6]</a> Deffeyes is a knowledgeable geologist (long ago, he was one of the early proponents of a then-controversial theory – plate tectonics). Others share the optimism; huge amounts of capital are flowing into the new shale gas plays.<br /><br />But some wonder if the potential of shale gas is overblown. Geologist Arthur Berman has argued that shale gas is not economic to produce unless the wholesale price of gas rises above $7 per million Btu.<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn7" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn7" name="_ednref7">[7]</a> Others have made similar arguments.<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn8" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn8" name="_ednref8">[8]</a> . A recent report argues that the level of effort to capture significant amounts of gas from shale is so large that it is unlikely to happen, especially if the price of natural gas remains at or below the break-even point, which this report indicates is likely in the range of $4.20 to $11.50 per million Btu.<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn9" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn9" name="_ednref9">[9]</a><br /><br />The key to the future of shale gas is its EROI. I’ve been unable to find estimates of the EROI of shale gas in the literature. However, I’ve made a preliminary first-order<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn10" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn10" name="_ednref10">[10]</a> estimate that the EROI of shale gas is in the range of 70 to greater than 100. This is probably significantly better than most other energy sources available today.<br /><br />This estimate is based on my interpretations of analyses by the Environmental Defense Fund<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn11" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn11" name="_ednref11">[11]</a> and the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (NYDEC)<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn12" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn12" name="_ednref12">[12]</a> which focused on the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from shale gas drilling and compressing operations. CO2 emissions are directly related to fossil fuel combustion, so these studies in effect provide estimates of the energy used to extract shale gas and get it to market. Other studies provide estimates of the ultimate production of gas from an average well<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn13" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn13" name="_ednref13">[13]</a> and on the portion of the gas that must be used to process and compress it and send it through pipelines.<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn14" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn14" name="_ednref14">[14]</a> Also included were approximate estimates of the energy it took to make the steel used for well casings and a portion of the necessary pipelines, and the concrete used in the casing process, which were apportioned based on assumptions.<br /><br />The NYDEC study looked at the main tasks involved in drilling and hydrofracking, including 1) site mobilization, construction and demobilization, 2) well drilling, 3) transportation of water, etc. necessary for hydrofracking, and 4), the hydrofracking process. Using activities on well drilling sites and estimated CO2 emissions based on equipment emission factors and times of operation, this study estimated a range of CO2 emissions for each of these and several smaller tasks, depending on whether the well was near or far from necessary materials, water, etc. I chose approximate average to high-end values for these tasks of 100, 95, 400, and 325 tons of CO2, respectively. Adding in several smaller tasks as well resulted in a total CO2 emission to drill and hydrofrack a well of approximately 940 tons. Since all of this work is typically powered by diesel engines, this emission can be converted with standard conversion factors<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn15" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn15" name="_ednref15">[15]</a> to Btu consumed in the form of diesel fuel. It translates to 11.6 billion Btu.<br /><br />The EDF study also inventoried activities on well drilling sites and estimated CO2 emissions based on equipment emission factors and times of operation. Its estimate, provided on a daily basis for 1000 wells completed per year, translates to approximately 1450 tons per well completion. This figure translates to 18.4 billion Btu.<br /><br />These values average 15 billion Btu. To this I added 2.8 billion Btu for the embodied energy in the steel used for the well casing,<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn16" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn16" name="_ednref16">[16]</a> 1.2 billion Btu for the embodied energy in the concrete used for the well casing,<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn17" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn17" name="_ednref17">[17]</a> 1.5 billion Btu for the embodied energy of the trucks, pumps, and other equipment used in the drilling and hydrofracking process,<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn18" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn18" name="_ednref18">[18]</a> and 10 billion Btu for the embodied energy of the steel used for a portion of the pipeline necessary to transport the gas.<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn19" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn19" name="_ednref19">[19]</a> All of these embodied energy estimates involve a number of assumptions and are subject to much uncertainty and variation from well to well, but I doubt the uncertainty of any of them is more than a factor of two. The total of all these energy costs to construct a shale gas well and get its production to market is approximately 30 billion Btu.<br /><br />Another, quite different approach is to estimate the total cost of a shale gas well and then use the average amount of energy associated with a dollar of gross domestic product (GDP) to translate this cost to an energy value.<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn20" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn20" name="_ednref20">[20]</a> In 2010, U.S. GDP was about $14.5 trillion, and the nation used about 100 quadrillion Btu. This translates to about 7000 Btu of energy expended per dollar. Assuming that the energy expended in drilling and hydrofracking a shale gas well bears the same relative relationship to the dollar, the approximately five million dollar estimated cost of a well and associated infrastructure<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn21" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn21" name="_ednref21">[21]</a> translates to an energy cost of 35 billion Btu.<br /><br />These energy cost values must be compared with the total energy expected to be produced by an average shale gas well. There are now enough data on wells from the major shale regions to provide such an estimate. A cumulative production estimate<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn22" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn22" name="_ednref22">[22]</a> for a typical Marcellus shale well for a 10-year period of 2.11 billion cubic feet was extrapolated to a 25-year period, yielding an estimate of approximately 2.9 billion cubic feet. This translates to approximately 2.9 trillion Btu. Other estimates suggest typical total production from Marcellus wells may in the range of 5 trillion Btu.<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn23" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn23" name="_ednref23">[23]</a> This ultimate production must be reduced by 8% to account for the approximate percentage of gas that is consumed to process and compress the gas and move it through pipelines to consumers. <a style="mso-endnote-id: edn24" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn24" name="_ednref24">[24]</a><br /><br />The estimated total energy cost of shale gas extraction is thus in the approximate range of 30 to 35 billion Btu while the estimated ultimate energy produced is in the range of 2.6 trillion to nearly 5 trillion Btu. The ratio of energy produced to energy expended for shale gas based on the approaches outlined above is thus at least 70 and perhaps well over 100. This is extremely good relative to the probable EROI values for other current energy sources.<br /><br />This relatively high EROI of shale gas has several implications:<br /><br />1) Shale gas is not a speculative bubble that will go away. Its favorable energy balance means that economics will inexorably drive the extraction of gas from shales, especially as supplies of petroleum grow tighter. The number of wells drilled will continue to grow, as will associated truck traffic and other activity. To the extent that appropriate regulations are not put in place and enforced and/or that voluntary best management practices are not followed, damages to the landscape and pollution events are inevitable.<br /><br />2) Natural gas will be in more plentiful supply than petroleum in the years to come; businesses and infrastructure that are dependent on petroleum are likely to look for ways to convert to natural gas. However, the potential size of the shale gas play should not be overestimated. It is not likely big enough to replace dwindling and ever-more-expensive petroleum on a large scale.<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn25" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn25" name="_ednref25">[25]</a><br /><br />3) Dangers of excessive regulation threatening the development of the nascent shale gas industry are probably overblown. Shale gas companies should be able to afford to adopt and enforce best practices for all that they do. Unless it can be conclusively proven that the entire industry needs protection from unnecessarily stringent regulations, a gas company’s arguments for regulatory leniency should be considered as nothing more than advocacy for that company’s own profitability.<br /><br />While the embodied energy of basic materials and machinery involved in the drilling and hydrofracking processes have been considered in this analysis, some energy costs have not been considered. These include the embodied energy of labor and associated support and infrastructure (e.g. workers’ vehicles, energy costs of housing and food for workers, etc.). Further, energy costs of remediating pollution and other problems that could result from shale gas extraction have not been considered. Also, costs of impacts to resources such as water supply, while not directly comparable to energy costs, are relevant to a deeper look at EROI.<br /><br />Some potential problems include:<br /><br />1) Large amounts of gas may leak from extraction operations. Although there is much uncertainty, recent work suggests that such leakage of natural gas, because of its relatively high global warming potential, could be large enough to nullify the benefits of natural gas vs. coal and petroleum from a global warming perspective.<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn26" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn26" name="_ednref26">[26</a>]<br /><br />2) Surface waters may be polluted by spilled or improperly treated flowback fluids and drinking water wells may be contaminated with chemicals used in the hydrofracking process or created in-situ as byproducts of this process. Several perceptive discussions of these potential impacts are available.<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn27" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn27" name="_ednref27">[27]</a>,<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn28" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn28" name="_ednref28">[28]</a><br /><br />3) Gas itself, finding its way into aquifers from nearby wells, may contaminate drinking water. A recent study found levels of gas from nearby wells high enough to present explosion hazards.<a style="mso-endnote-id: edn29" title="" href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7735947934870676816#_edn29" name="_ednref29">[29]</a><br /><br />4) More drilling activity will generate more traffic on rural roads, resulting in more noise, air pollution, safety risks, and generating a need for road and other maintenance and improvements.<br /><br />5) More drilling activity will fragment vast stretches of contiguous forest. (See photo of drilling sites in western PA.) Loss of contiguous forest is likely to accelerate the decline of many species of wildlife including neotropical migrant songbirds.<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR7JbXFBHr351l0zJI115fAQWp8cAIl42r4E1TGhOaXUiwBgrmZ81xLrQs13KrttGp0-KVA99tLs-X-IYk8aoCcXFtHr5-aWBgdPWsb3pB9HmTnKf2khl7hAelaI_ZtvwoB2VNA04Ly0g/s1600/Shale+gas+forest+fragmentation.jpg"><img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 300px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5621594696610544306" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR7JbXFBHr351l0zJI115fAQWp8cAIl42r4E1TGhOaXUiwBgrmZ81xLrQs13KrttGp0-KVA99tLs-X-IYk8aoCcXFtHr5-aWBgdPWsb3pB9HmTnKf2khl7hAelaI_ZtvwoB2VNA04Ly0g/s400/Shale+gas+forest+fragmentation.jpg" /></a><br /><br />Serious efforts towards improving the efficiency of natural gas use could reduce the pressure to extract more gas and thereby reduce the incidence of negative impacts. (See, for example, earlier posts on this site on increasing home heating efficiency.)<br /><br />Increased production of natural gas from shale is also likely to have positive impacts, including the creation of jobs and the flow of more money into rural areas.<br /><br />If negative impacts can be controlled with best management practices, which will likely require appropriate and well-enforced regulations, shale gas could help maintain rural communities and ameliorate, to some degree, growing energy supply problems. Especially important, both from a global warming and from a safety perspective, appears to be minimizing gas leakage. It also seems critical that new supplies of natural gas not be squandered through wasteful usage; environmental costs resulting from shale gas will be lessened to the degree that less gas is used due to increased energy efficiency.<br /><br />References<br /><br />[1] While EROI is the key to a resource’s energy usefulness, there are important aspects to a resource’s costs that are not considered. These include its renewability, environmental impact, its size, and the need for ancillary resources and materials. For a thorough discussion of EROI and net energy see Heinberg, 2009, referenced below. . Also see Mulder & Hagens, 2008, referenced below.<br />[2] Heinberg, Richard, 2009, Searching for a Miracle: “Net Energy” Limits and the Fate of Industrial Society, <a href="http://www.postcarbon.org/report/44377-searching-for-a-miracle">http://www.postcarbon.org/report/44377-searching-for-a-miracle</a><br />[3] Mulder, K., and N. Hagens, 2008, Energy return on investment: Toward a consistent framework, Ambio, 37, 74-79.<br />[4] Hall, Charles, 2008, Why EROI Matters, The Oil Drum, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3786<br />[5] Deffeyes, K., 2010, When Oil Peaked, Hill and Wang, NY, p.107<br />[6] <a href="http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html">http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html</a><br />[7] <a href="http://petroleumtruthreport.blogspot.com/">http://petroleumtruthreport.blogspot.com/</a><br />[8] <a href="http://baobab2050.org/2010/10/28/shale-gas-miracle-or-mirage/">http://baobab2050.org/2010/10/28/shale-gas-miracle-or-mirage/</a><br />[9] Hughes, J. David, 2011, Will Natural Gas Fuel America in the 21st Century, Post Carbon Institute, www.postcarbon.org/report/331901-will-natural-gas-fuel-america-in<br />[10] See Mulder & Hagens, 2008, for a further discussion of this term and of the methodological issues in EROI determination<br />[11] Armendariz, A., 2009, Emissions from Natural Gas Production in the Barnett Shale Area and Opportunities for Cost-Effective Improvements, prepared for Alvarez, Ramon, Environmental Defense Fund, Austin, TX, January 26, 2009, <a href="http://www.edf.org/documents/9235_Barnett_Shale_Report.pdf">http://www.edf.org/documents/9235_Barnett_Shale_Report.pdf</a><br />[12] NYDEC, 2009, DRAFT Supplemental Generic Environmental Impact Statement on the Oil, Gas and Solution Mining Regulatory Program, NY Department of Environmental Conservation, Albany, NY, <a href="http://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/58440.html">http://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/58440.html</a><br />[13]Harper, John, and Jaime Kostelnik, PA Geological Survey, The Marcellus Shale Play in Pennsylvania, <a href="http://www.marcellus.psu.edu/resources/PDFs/DCNR.pdf">http://www.marcellus.psu.edu/resources/PDFs/DCNR.pdf</a>, accessed 6/15/11<br />[14] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011, Natural gas consumption by end use, <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm">http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm</a>. The quantities used for “lease and plant fuel” and “pipeline and distribution” in 2010 represented 8.3% of total consumption.<br />[15] EIA, 2011a, http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/1605/emission_factors.html<br />[16] Wikipedia, 2011, “Embodied Energy,” <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embodied_energy">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embodied_energy</a>, and references therein<br />[17] Wikipedia, 2011<br />[18] Stodolsky, F., A. Vyas, R. Cuenca, and L. Gaines, 1995, Life-Cycle Energy Savings Potential from Aluminum-Intensive Vehicles, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439. See analysis at <a href="http://michaelaucott.blogspot.com/2010/08/still-in-service-why.html">http://michaelaucott.blogspot.com/2010/08/still-in-service-why.html</a>, which uses this report to estimate that the embodied energy of vehicles and other machinery represents approximately 10% or less of the energy needed to operate the unit over its lifetime. This same percent of the energy used during the drilling, etc. processes was assumed to represent the energy expended in the form of embodied energy of vehicles and other equipment.<br />[19] Value for steel is from Wikipedia, 2011; M. Aucott assumed for this analysis that 10 miles of 20” pipeline would be installed, but that this would serve 10 wells. Energy expended for construction of pipeline was ignored. Pipelines may serve many more than 10 wells, and could last for longer than the lifetime of one well, which would lower the apportioned energy expenditure. There is considerable uncertainty with this figure.<br />[20] Hall, C., and M. Lavine, 1979, "Efficiency of Energy Delivery Systems:1. An Economic and Energy Analysis", Environmental Management, vol 3, no 6, pp 493-504, 1979 (First part of a 3 part article), as referenced in “North American Natural Gas Production and EROI Decline” from http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3673.<br />[21] Harper and Kostelnik, PA Geological Survery, 2011; $5 million dollar figure is sum of estimated cost of a Marcellus well from this the figure “Comparisons of Four Major Shale Plays” from this reference ($3.5 million) plus additional $1.5 assumed by M. Aucott to approximate the cost of associated pipelines.<br />[22] Harper and Kostelnik, PA Geological Survey, 2011<br />[23] Vanderman, Kris, 2011, Penn State University webinar, 4/21/11.<br />[24] <a href="http://www.blogger.com/EIA">EIA</a>, 2011<br />[25] Hughes, 2011<br />[26] Howarth, R., R. Santoro, and A. Ingraffea, 2011, Methane and greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formations, Climatic Change, http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/greeninc/Howarth2011.pdf<br />[27] Penningroth, Steven, 2010, http://yosemite.epa.gov/sab/sabproduct.nsf/A4105736E3A173AC85257703006B8648/$File/Pub+Comments+by+S+Penningroth+Ithaca+NY4-7-10+for+EEC+Apr+7-8+2010+Meeting.pdf<br />[28] http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-06-20/forum-just-how-safe-%E2%80%98fracking%E2%80%99-natural-gas<br />[29] Osborn, S., A. Vengosh, N. Warner, and R. Jackson, 2011, Methane contamination of drinking water accompanying gas well drilling and hydrofracking, PNAS, http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/05/02/1100682108Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-35929748757481871072011-05-17T21:02:00.000-07:002011-05-19T12:46:30.996-07:00VMT Trend Flat - the End of an Era?<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQzo05iFYdtoz6F-WnXCVqnL5gxUbG8up_8rcXFvH60Y1pnTqpPtI6MzBQHNLEhdnXN6U4542XkM_bHZHwjxKs3eStbHwwwabdF0yWaCZHDqS5WvUeF_XkfWVsKunLaTSMG_TsANd_jp0/s1600/VMT_36_2010.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5607901836723563554" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 403px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 316px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQzo05iFYdtoz6F-WnXCVqnL5gxUbG8up_8rcXFvH60Y1pnTqpPtI6MzBQHNLEhdnXN6U4542XkM_bHZHwjxKs3eStbHwwwabdF0yWaCZHDqS5WvUeF_XkfWVsKunLaTSMG_TsANd_jp0/s400/VMT_36_2010.jpg" border="0" /></a><br />Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are strongly linked to the American way of life, and correlated with economic activity. From the 1930s until recently, with a few interruptions, VMT in the U.S. have grown consistently.<br /><br />But around 2005, well before the recent economic downturn, an inflection point in the long-term trend appears to have occurred. Since then, the VMT trend has essentially been flat. This is a change of potentially historic proportions.<br /><br />The 2005 growth cessation coincided with the price of gasoline rising above $2.50 per gallon. As the chart below shows, there have been only two other periods since the 30s when the real price of gasoline rose above $2.50 per gallon, the World War II era and the mid-70s through the early 80s. These periods also saw flat or declining VMT.<br /><br />The current period of flat VMT is the longest since WW II, when gasoline was rationed. With gasoline prices again nearing $4.00 per gallon, it is unlikely that VMT will increase in 2011. It would not be a surprise if prices increase, and if a decline in VMT sets in. We may be witnessing the end of an era.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMoagTc-zY89orHQaLOrrseLO_mHyqClZIaCktDw-0ZetRT5hhmsrNiOEgnaPeN60Or9J0N2M7ICX74S7Z839cZVaG6hmh5pJeHBlViYLTEXjqcdEGS5M9GmrKT3jKkGwPgUmM5hfFwEg/s1600/real_gas_pump_price.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5607901761342193570" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 410px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 309px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMoagTc-zY89orHQaLOrrseLO_mHyqClZIaCktDw-0ZetRT5hhmsrNiOEgnaPeN60Or9J0N2M7ICX74S7Z839cZVaG6hmh5pJeHBlViYLTEXjqcdEGS5M9GmrKT3jKkGwPgUmM5hfFwEg/s400/real_gas_pump_price.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div></div>Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-58048172942863882712011-04-12T18:54:00.000-07:002011-04-12T19:12:47.263-07:00Heating Index: How does your house perform compared to other houses? Part 2<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_ymDN8_vUCpFqEXLDHpqLrztw40ZSalAlO0NzzZD33vDRf33WmlzP164YLCOfGBvyBjW1sqKmQOdqu1RmTZ4Y1csSFN22zB_YxZRIM8WBjbMATCPtIEMXuqt2qn5VpnSa0B6Hu18AUHY/s1600/home+heating+index.jpg"><img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 300px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5594880968411931426" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_ymDN8_vUCpFqEXLDHpqLrztw40ZSalAlO0NzzZD33vDRf33WmlzP164YLCOfGBvyBjW1sqKmQOdqu1RmTZ4Y1csSFN22zB_YxZRIM8WBjbMATCPtIEMXuqt2qn5VpnSa0B6Hu18AUHY/s400/home+heating+index.jpg" /></a> <br /><div>How does your house compare with other houses in heating efficiency? As outlined in the previous post, figuring out how much energy your house uses for heating is relatively easy. An average house will use 10,000 to 15,000 Btus per heating degree day (HDD). But this measure alone doesn't reveal how your house ranks on the scale of heating efficiency, and doesn't help determine if there is lots of room for improvement or if you've got your house about as efficient as it's likely to get. A refinement is to determine the energy used per square foot of living space, and compare with the range of houses. The chart here, adapted from the book <em>Residential Energy: Cost Savings and Comfort for Existing Buildings</em>, by John Krigger and Chris Dorsi, shows this range. </div>Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-16801030957233409292011-03-21T19:32:00.000-07:002011-03-21T19:38:08.375-07:00Heating Index: How does your house perform compared to other houses?<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ-pSgoIQLoAsscTptwB76IVS7kGxYENcfSJtc3tntiQ5h575BMNbYfPswFtrKjqx6c9boX0ft1WbrWXINKhRcoUvRZkT2PNuNepT5y9UD4d8KFISz7izuBC8RYDBtUM0RjQQBZZi6GmE/s1600/Heating+degree+days+home+heating+efficiency.jpg"><img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 300px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5586727648305070338" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ-pSgoIQLoAsscTptwB76IVS7kGxYENcfSJtc3tntiQ5h575BMNbYfPswFtrKjqx6c9boX0ft1WbrWXINKhRcoUvRZkT2PNuNepT5y9UD4d8KFISz7izuBC8RYDBtUM0RjQQBZZi6GmE/s400/Heating+degree+days+home+heating+efficiency.jpg" /></a><br /><div>It’s becoming increasingly clear that the industrial world’s massive consumption of energy cannot continue its present course into the world of the future. Easily recoverable and therefore inexpensive petroleum and natural gas are fading from the scene, and efforts to keep these conventional fossil fuels flowing including hydrofracking, deep water oil wells, and exploiting tar sands all are showing problems. Coal remains cheap, but large areas subject to mountain top removal mining are paying an environmental cost. Next generation nuclear power is promising, but expensive to build. And since the scary event in Japan, nuclear power will doubtless meet with renewed resistance. Renewables such as photovoltaics, wind and ethanol are still so expensive they cannot compete without subsidies and currently contribute relatively trivial amounts of energy. There is one approach left and it’s probably the best from many standpoints. This is energy conservation and energy efficiency. It’s something everybody can do. We could get much better at it.<br /><br />A good place to start is with one’s house. Most of us use a third or more of the energy we’re directly responsible for in running our houses. In the northern half of the U.S., about half of that is for heating.<br /><br />How does your house rate in heating efficiency compared to the U.S. average, and to other houses in your neighborhood? Hiring someone to do a complete energy audit is the best way to get a precise accounting of your home’s energy use, but you can easily do an estimate that’s likely to be reasonably accurate.<br /><br />First, you need to know how much fuel you use for space heating in a typical year. To keep it simple, we’ll limit this exercise to natural gas and heating oil, the primary fuels used to heat houses. Fuels use will vary somewhat from year to year but any recent year should be OK for a decent estimate. Tally up your fuel use for a year by looking at your fuel bills. Natural gas will likely be expressed in therms. Look at how many therms you use during the months of June, July, August, and September. These totals represent non-space-heating uses such as water heating, clothes drying, and cooking. Take the average for each month, multiply by 12, and subtract this total from your yearly total. What’s left is the amount of heat you used for space heating. If you heat with oil, you’ll be measuring gallons of fuel used. If the units are therms, multiply the therm total by 100,000; this will express this energy use in Btus. If the units are gallons, multiply by 135,000, which is the approximate number of Btus per gallon of heating oil. <br /><br />Now, look on the map above and estimate how many heating degree days (HDD) (1) there are where you live. Here in central New Jersey, this is about 5000. Divide your space heating total by this amount and you’ll have a heating intensity value for your house expressed as Btus per HDD. The average value for the U.S. appears to be in the range of 10,000 to 15,000 Btu per HDD. How does your house stack up? <br /><br />If your value is much less than this, you are one of the reasons that we don’t have a worse energy problem. Congratulations! <br /><br />If it’s much more than this, it may be because your house is bigger than average, you keep it warmer than average, it’s less efficient at retaining heat, or your heater is less efficient than most. Perhaps all of these factors are involved. There are a number of steps you can take. Two of these steps are free. One is simply to close off some rooms. Are there unused upstairs rooms, for example? If you can shut off the flow of heat to them, you’ll save a lot of energy. The other free step is turning the thermostat down, and it is tremendously effective; a one degree F drop will reduce your space heating fuel use by up to 5%.(2) And, as a recent article shows, dressing warmly can make a cooler house quite tolerable.(3) A third step is nearly free – installing a programmable thermostat that turns down the heat when you are sleeping or not at home. This can save 15% or more of your space heating fuel.<br /><br />Next in difficulty and expense but often quite cost-effective are a variety of steps including installing better insulation, eliminating air leaks, and getting a more efficient heater. Even if it’s big, a tight, well-insulated house with an efficient heater can use less energy than a small, inefficient house. The heating efficiency of a house per square foot of living space is a useful metric to use if you want to look more closely at your house’s heating efficiency. I’ll discuss this metric in more detail in a subsequent post.<br /><br />(1) A heating degree day represents the difference between 65 F and the average outside temperature for that day. For example, if a day’s high is 50 F and its low is 30 F, the average temperature is 40 F and there are 65-40 = 25 heating degree days that day.<br /><br />(2) <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/consumptionbriefs/recs/thermostat_settings/thermostat.html">http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/consumptionbriefs/recs/thermostat_settings/thermostat.html</a><br /><br />(3) <a href="http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2011/02/body-insulation-thermal-underwear.html">http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2011/02/body-insulation-thermal-underwear.html</a> </div>Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-83456795727474228682011-01-06T10:53:00.000-08:002011-04-08T06:25:27.759-07:00Oil Production; Fuel Cost as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product; An UpdateThere are two widely-used metrics of petroleum production, crude oil (including gas from oil wells that condenses and is mingled with crude oil), and “total liquids.” The latter includes “natural gas liquids” (NGLs), which are liquid fuels derived from natural gas, “other liquids,” which are primarily biofuels, and “refinery processing gain.” The latter is liquids made from crude oil that are less dense than crude oil and so represent an increase in volume over the original crude. <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOBQj3bLCiLzBaqCpyL9BrT96qIiq8DVgHPvFad500P4c-npPgskXUA1o7jXIE2Nob-2WeJg7wNjl2PXCetyPs9tTPX_ByF_R-WrBb9y26usA4IPDv9gDvJ_n3__d_KjyTT8fR_QI4_TA/s1600/total+oil+supply+components.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5559148846744971922" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 445px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 333px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOBQj3bLCiLzBaqCpyL9BrT96qIiq8DVgHPvFad500P4c-npPgskXUA1o7jXIE2Nob-2WeJg7wNjl2PXCetyPs9tTPX_ByF_R-WrBb9y26usA4IPDv9gDvJ_n3__d_KjyTT8fR_QI4_TA/s400/total+oil+supply+components.jpg" border="0" /></a><br />Although it will likely take several more years of data to be sure, it appears that global production of crude oil reached its peak annual production in 2005. Total liquids production, however, still seems to be rising, with the 2010 value about 1.5% higher than 2005. A closer look reveals that the total energy content of these liquids has risen somewhat less, about 1% since 2005. This is because the increase in total liquids is due to larger quantities of the non-crude oil components, and these components contain less energy per volume than crude oil (1). <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiq172ZlU3gGFjsp2inb89pkrMgj3A8r6NWzKUJ9EAtxCntesJ7Ep8rVMjfRD_MnLnq5ptr7HCozhpeIWoxKUtwfWfh-rv_fxpMscMMODZGvecDR5_t5JaiDwFkp9j8fdivFyPEi3WhD8/s1600/total+liquids+gross+energy+content.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5559148722963108402" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 422px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 351px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiq172ZlU3gGFjsp2inb89pkrMgj3A8r6NWzKUJ9EAtxCntesJ7Ep8rVMjfRD_MnLnq5ptr7HCozhpeIWoxKUtwfWfh-rv_fxpMscMMODZGvecDR5_t5JaiDwFkp9j8fdivFyPEi3WhD8/s400/total+liquids+gross+energy+content.jpg" border="0" /></a><br />This view of the data still isn’t the whole story. These data reflect the gross energy in the fuel consumed, not the net energy, sometimes expressed as an energy returned over energy invested (EROI) ratio. It is likely that production of oil and other liquids requires more energy today than formerly, because many of the easily extracted fuels have already been produced. Some estimates in the literature suggest that the EROI of crude oil produced today is in the range of 15 to 1 or less, whereas formerly it had been 50 to 1 or higher. If the EROI of the fuels that are the components of total liquids is declining, it is possible that the trend of the net energy of the total liquids is closer to flat, or even declining. <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvkaZBpP4_63sYxKjS4htxXVRh8W0BWF9efXl1Dm6lwAbB7nHt-Som456irUrB4RBl0E71MrLDQ1gRMUwBWmQKxOA_c4GlhMVSzYtc7MBeA3LEI3iZ1RNwHhi3ZmVYUHEbQZRLKYwXv44/s1600/fossil+fuels+percent+GDP.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5559152468024008290" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 300px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvkaZBpP4_63sYxKjS4htxXVRh8W0BWF9efXl1Dm6lwAbB7nHt-Som456irUrB4RBl0E71MrLDQ1gRMUwBWmQKxOA_c4GlhMVSzYtc7MBeA3LEI3iZ1RNwHhi3ZmVYUHEbQZRLKYwXv44/s400/fossil+fuels+percent+GDP.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><div><br /><div>If market signals reflect reality, as more energy is expended in acquiring a fuel, the price of that fuel should rise. Plotting the cost of energy as a fraction of GDP is an indirect way of gauging the net energy of the fossil fuel resource. Pictured is an update of a plot of fossil fuel cost as a percent of GDP. Although the 2010 value is preliminary, the percent appears to again be above its range during recent periods of prosperity. This probably signals continued economic difficulties, since our way of life is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, and paying more for fuel means less money for other things. The percent would be higher were it not for a big drop in the price of natural gas. If, as some believe, there are vast new reserves of natural gas now available from shale, this fuel may offset to some degree flat or declining quantities and net energy of liquid fuels.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">(1) NGLs probably are more or less similar to LP gas, which has about 70% of the energy per volume as crude oil. Ethanol, the primary biofuel, has only about 60% of the energy of crude. The volume of crude plus refinery processing gain has an energy density somewhere in-between the two chief refinery products, gasoline and diesel fuel and similar fuels, and this is about 5% less than the energy density of the original crude. This difference represents the energy consumed in producing the refined products. </span></div></div></div>Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-45876320424290440512010-12-31T11:43:00.000-08:002010-12-31T11:52:00.031-08:00Food in Winter: Eating Locally Means Preserving Locally<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxpQzxdOHjRou6SgcsioxHXI_mPQyjhKXHaWWjvPqBEwNqTFgFpYiaoseLeLNwm8GqxUZeUW-F5OKO-bOAlRzs4sQTxCewxsMO7tHbnY5YA5_EX1jXze0FYc3lHdWd84eZoRqyhFsHpFA/s1600/canned+food.jpg"><img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 300px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5556935987938841362" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxpQzxdOHjRou6SgcsioxHXI_mPQyjhKXHaWWjvPqBEwNqTFgFpYiaoseLeLNwm8GqxUZeUW-F5OKO-bOAlRzs4sQTxCewxsMO7tHbnY5YA5_EX1jXze0FYc3lHdWd84eZoRqyhFsHpFA/s400/canned+food.jpg" /></a> Food prices have been rising; between June and November 2010 the prices of staples such as wheat and corn have gone up by more than 25% (1). One likely reason is rising energy costs. Food production is energy-intensive, and if the cost of energy rises, so must the price of food. In the U.S., we consume over 10 quadrillion Btu (quads) of energy a year, about 10% of our total energy consumption, to produce the food we eat. Some of this energy is used to manufacture fertilizer and pesticides and to run farm equipment. Much of the energy is used to transport, process, package, distribute, and market food items. But the biggest chunk of energy used by the food system is for storing and cooking and otherwise preparing food, most of which happens in the home (2).<br /><br />It’s looking increasingly likely that global oil production has peaked; even some previously skeptical commentators have come to this conclusion (3). If production has peaked, global oil supplies will eventually start to decline. It is not clear whether this decline will be steep or gradual or how soon it will begin. If the decline is steep, the price of liquid fuels such as gasoline and diesel could rise rapidly, and there could be shortages. The food system, with its many interconnected links dependent on liquid fuels, is vulnerable, and this means food itself could become more expensive or even scarce.<br /><br />One solution, for areas with suitable land and enough rain, is backyard food production and local agriculture. Locally grown foods, less dependent on transportation and distribution networks, should be somewhat immune from the worst effects of price increases and possible shortages of fuels (4). But local food production cannot be depended upon if the supply ends when the growing season ends. Even with hoop houses and other technology to extend the harvest, in most of the U.S. locally grown food will not be available for half the year unless it’s been preserved. If shipments from California, Florida, and Mexico become expensive or unavailable, there better be something in the refrigerator, the freezer, the cold cellar, the smokehouse, the pickle barrel, or the pantry. <br /><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj03Ojh0zMhMhoqo18HuR41DNfYGGQ4VTGytHhSpOng-8lo72m6noUgqGk8jdAOQqZm503bXwFPzcvwh5MUasTW7a6tJTttD7JiOax_MVKx24Ouyw64QbnwBCPUZvw9LsV22GfMmDx_Fi0/s1600/food+preservation+energy+use.jpg"><img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 300px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5556935877259977506" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj03Ojh0zMhMhoqo18HuR41DNfYGGQ4VTGytHhSpOng-8lo72m6noUgqGk8jdAOQqZm503bXwFPzcvwh5MUasTW7a6tJTttD7JiOax_MVKx24Ouyw64QbnwBCPUZvw9LsV22GfMmDx_Fi0/s400/food+preservation+energy+use.jpg" /></a> </div><div> </div><div><br />There are many tried-and-true methods of food preservation. An important aspect is energy use. Using estimates in the literature (5) and my own calculations I have estimated the energy consumption of a variety of these methods. Freezing and refrigeration score especially poorly, in part because electricity must include the energy required to produce it, and also because a freezer must run for an entire storage period whether it is full of food or down to one item. Drying requires a lot of energy. But once dried, foods will keep for many years if properly stored. Canning requires energy too but canned vegetables and fruits will keep well for several years. And some canned foods such as tomato sauce (pictured above), if made from home-grown, vine-ripened fruit by someone with anything like the skill of my wife Louise, are better than what you can buy. <br /><br />Local food-growing systems will become more meaningful and important to the degree that they address the importance of food preservation. <br /><br />(1) Foley, John, Food Prices Face a Perilous Rise, NY Times, 12/29/10<br />(2) CSS, 2007, Factsheets: U.S. Food System, <a href="http://css.snre.umich.edu/css_doc/CSS01-06.pdf">http://css.snre.umich.edu/css_doc/CSS01-06.pdf</a><br />(3) See Krugman, Paul., The Finite World, NY Times, 12/26/10<br />(4) I am referring here to field-grown crops, not the extremely energy-intensive food production of heated greenhouses.<br />(5) Smil, Vaclav, 1991, General Energetics, John Wiley & Sons, NY<br /></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv-6ZydseE-dKYwsa80jVn893h8T1XOoUAuNIHdYf0pNy1BwK3QRjN8-oOGmfVIzducx7YogCJJBDjvnxLn5z0pVr5cmzCTSx9TdzPEpGQURoBlZcUrKHRe03fahyphenhyphen0I3CZzACJtfMcnis/s1600/food+preservation+energy+use.jpg"></a><br /><br /><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTdwe5me0qsIzW-JViBkx7WmeqwFd1mEj5UUjmjF1t-oIPzalHMjEQKRhtmO6bn5gj_gRW8SpZaJTMoMf8Gb3lnvrT5qMm40dt5fV8LjGBT_-ez4c3cPI-GXyK5UeYqncT9krbN3klYY0/s1600/food+preservation+energy+use.jpg"></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYFShrUy-t925jJXTCkmG0Q6fz3WG9rGQeocO5Sy-JOJWOoz0auq5A1PJ6cLEGUNo4C85rJSqfUK6awroa8PxE7c-kLMj1lacOJJCvbbOZLeY4PrUeQi2FA6RNsbTcBvLGEJgJGricy_Q/s1600/canned+food.jpg"></a></div></div></div>Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735947934870676816.post-30728114493179999372010-10-11T21:00:00.000-07:002010-10-12T19:20:54.838-07:00Lawns, the Price of Eggs, and Chicken Tractors<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyElQhILUut-u6LGg8F465EgcVQJ0eUxBk4RbkldopLjiLYCiqxetb7qDlKRkSziydsGj8X6eWaSB49ftvLs1JKxZOBKpe3_cmsRvY5rvHDTjU5CO8qPaMiYhEwXmQ27_XKRYOIdGgX1U/s1600/lawn.JPG"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 406px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 300px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5527343088392009202" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyElQhILUut-u6LGg8F465EgcVQJ0eUxBk4RbkldopLjiLYCiqxetb7qDlKRkSziydsGj8X6eWaSB49ftvLs1JKxZOBKpe3_cmsRvY5rvHDTjU5CO8qPaMiYhEwXmQ27_XKRYOIdGgX1U/s400/lawn.JPG" /></a><br /><div><div><div><div>Lawns provide fine venues for sports, but why do people maintain big lawns that are never used for anything? Maybe lawns stimulate something deep in our psyches. Maybe at an unconscious level the smell of fresh cut grass equals “good” (food for a horse) or an expanse of close-cropped green surrounding the house equals “safety” (no snakes nearby). Lawns don’t come without some cost however. According to EPA, Americans burn 800 million gallons of gasoline yearly, about 0.6% of the total use of that fuel, to mow grass. Lawn care also uses water and pesticides.<br /></div><br /><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR47Ez3UrGkLlLqygYLAJxRfHo1Pb_g0mrqsLjXyXvJr0ciMvr3DCeCiI9mf_XzxjKWsTNeVDBdl2u4OH-wMNbfRmmZDCS_1NahpyBrNc7XuKIAC8kqX86aTlQ-OS2ttvU_JshclUoKis/s1600/price+of+eggs.jpg"><img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 422px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 288px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5527005058479759874" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR47Ez3UrGkLlLqygYLAJxRfHo1Pb_g0mrqsLjXyXvJr0ciMvr3DCeCiI9mf_XzxjKWsTNeVDBdl2u4OH-wMNbfRmmZDCS_1NahpyBrNc7XuKIAC8kqX86aTlQ-OS2ttvU_JshclUoKis/s400/price+of+eggs.jpg" /></a></div><br /><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div>A big lawn could become a useful resource for feeding chickens. There's an upsurge in interest in chicken-raising, perhaps related to the price of eggs, which has risen recently as shown in the chart. Agricultural commodities can be expected to rise in cost as energy prices increase, so eggs may get more expensive. Also, the grossly crowded conditions of today's industrial poultry operations raise questions about the quality of commercial eggs. Unfortunately, producing one’s own eggs with a small flock of chickens is only marginally cost-effective. The main cost is the price of feed. My calculations suggest that buying, housing, and feeding a dozen or so egg-laying hens for three years will cost in the range of $150 per bird, not counting the labor to take care of them. Each hen will produce approximately 50 dozen eggs during this period; so if the eggs are worth $3 a dozen the benefits more or less equal the costs. </div><br /><div>However, if you have a flock small enough so that you can feed it largely with kitchen and table scraps, and if you can keep your chickens on good pasture a lot of the time, the cost picture improves. The scraps from a family of four could make up half the feed of four chickens. Good pasture would cut the feed bill further. Chickens will eat just about any food scrap that is at all edible. They are adept at catching flies and other insects and ticks. They love green matter so much that they will quickly defoliate a small fenced-in yard, reducing its pasture value to virtually nothing. The key to providing good pasture is to have a large enough area so that the birds can’t get ahead of plant growth. An ideal approach is to frequently move them to fresh pasture. It’s not hard to do this with a different kind of lawn tractor - a chicken tractor. The chicken tractor pictured was built by a co-worker of mine, Dave Bean. It houses several chickens and is not hard to move around on the lawn. It protects the chickens from predators, but it’s open to the grass below. With a chicken tractor making its rounds, the chickens eat, the grass gets chopped off and fertilized, lawn insects and ticks are obliterated, and there’s still a lawn area for a volleyball game.<br /><br /></div></div><div><div><div><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 404px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 255px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5527005840978084066" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPa4E5DQh2NTZWF2eb91VrBg2MF8norMrOJL5Abfqyhd3q3KXYJYfuyMUG98lDCg0549eqjZVCO1PCS6QSShBBSVDF7UJ-RYzyvNMRPPUgeNA9IXPVdVL3n8Tim0AyEn9Pe6Z8LR2RtZE/s400/chicken+tractor+1.jpg" /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR47Ez3UrGkLlLqygYLAJxRfHo1Pb_g0mrqsLjXyXvJr0ciMvr3DCeCiI9mf_XzxjKWsTNeVDBdl2u4OH-wMNbfRmmZDCS_1NahpyBrNc7XuKIAC8kqX86aTlQ-OS2ttvU_JshclUoKis/s1600/price+of+eggs.jpg"></a></div></div><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 414px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 264px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5527005846245955682" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ7ABZeFjDB4K_XX31Y6HtcXihdO3d_vtFpzSCLVWD0rkft0720EpoFlnhyphenhyphenoWTZaVDgEPsqCIhTVbe25uLeDOfFVoUSH2jyGIZIHQoRnbOScFfqgx1_GRHy4zC5eGNzWDCxT59D3VbBgQ/s400/chicken+tractor+2.jpg" /><br /><br /><div><br /><br /><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR47Ez3UrGkLlLqygYLAJxRfHo1Pb_g0mrqsLjXyXvJr0ciMvr3DCeCiI9mf_XzxjKWsTNeVDBdl2u4OH-wMNbfRmmZDCS_1NahpyBrNc7XuKIAC8kqX86aTlQ-OS2ttvU_JshclUoKis/s1600/price+of+eggs.jpg"></a></div></div><br /><br /><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR47Ez3UrGkLlLqygYLAJxRfHo1Pb_g0mrqsLjXyXvJr0ciMvr3DCeCiI9mf_XzxjKWsTNeVDBdl2u4OH-wMNbfRmmZDCS_1NahpyBrNc7XuKIAC8kqX86aTlQ-OS2ttvU_JshclUoKis/s1600/price+of+eggs.jpg"></a></div></div></div></div>Mike Aucotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.com4